Weeks of wild action from the 2023 NCAA Tournament have finally brought us to the crowning moment of the season. The 68-team bracket originally introduced on Selection Sunday has nearly played out, with only two teams still standing to enter Monday’s national championship game. It will be No. 4 seed UConn and No. 5 seed San Diego State battling it out Monday for the team that will tear down the nets from NRG Stadium in Houston as national champions.
UConn has been on a tear with all five of its NCAA Tournament wins coming by 13 or more points in what has been one of the most dominant postseason runs in recent memory. However, San Diego State has been a Giant Killer throughout the postseason, with a win over No. 1 ranked Alabama among the many feathers in that team’s cap. The Aztecs earned their first berth in the title game in fitting fashion as well, overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit against FAU with the only buzzer so far in March Madness.
The Huskies, 4-0 all-time in championship games, are the betting favorite to win the title on Monday and keep their unblemished record intact. However, the Aztecs are a very gritty team that can cover the spread and keep things interesting throughout.
Our team, as we have done all NCAA tournament, made our picks for the game below both straight up and against the spread. You can see that everyone expects a UConn win, although covering SDSU’s number and staying at that level is a potential outcome that some of our staff is expecting, which would add drama to the season finale.
Be sure to stick with CBS Sports on the final day of the NCAA Tournament for complete March Madness coverage as the Final Four wraps up and we crown a national champion.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times east
Final Four Predictions, Picks
(4) UConn vs. (5) San Diego State
Monday, 20:49 | CBS, March Madness Live
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Distribution |
SDSU +7.5 |
UCONN -7.5 |
UCONN -7.5 |
UCONN -7.5 |
SDSU +7.5 |
UCONN -7.5 |
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Straight forward |
UCONN |
UCONN |
UCONN |
UCONN |
UCONN |
UCONN |
Kyle Boone: No team in this year’s NCAA tournament has been able to touch UConn, and if I’m tossing a little cheddar on a potential Monday outcome, the betting trend continues. The Huskies won each of their five games by 13+ points en route to the title game, which puts them in thin air as the fifth team to win by at least that large a five-game margin. SDSU has a viable defense that could give UConn problems, and its size matches up well with the Huskies’ front line, but the inside-out balance and depth of this Dan Hurley-coached club has been troubling teams — and SDSU could be next. Pick: UConn -7.5
Gary Parrish: UConn has won every game in this NCAA Tournament by at least 13 points, and the prevailing thought seems to be that the Huskies will likely pull off Villanova in 2018 and finish this championship with six straight double-digit wins. Perhaps. But let’s not forget that San Diego State already beat the No. 1 seed (Alabama). What’s important: The Aztecs have already won this tournament as a seven-point underdog. So, is it really crazy to think that San Diego State can at least hang with UConn? I do not think so. Like most, I believe the Huskies are on track to win their fifth national title under a third different coach, but I’ll take SDSU plus the points and hope for a competitive championship game. Pick: San Diego State +7.5
David Cobb: UConn crushed everyone in its path during the NCAA Tournament, but the Huskies didn’t match up against a defense with that combination of size, experience and physicality. The Aztecs like to play slow and prefer low-scoring games. Unlike most teams UConn has faced in recent weeks, San Diego State also has the ability to compete downfield with Adama Sanogo. That should help the Aztecs keep UConn off the pace. Ultimately, the Huskies are the right pick to win outright, but SDSU has the tools to keep it within single digits and cover a three-possession spread. Pick: San Diego State +7.5
Chip Patterson: I think we’re about to see UConn match the streaks of 2018 Villanova, 2009 North Carolina, 2001 Duke and 2000 Michigan State by winning the national championship with six double-digit tournament wins. The power ratings, market and models can’t handle how much better the Huskies are playing than their season numbers, and even they rank among the best in the country. It’s not like UConn is outscoring teams by an average of 22.6 in this tournament; the Huskies have also been at least nine points ahead of the spread in all five wins. San Diego State may hang around for a while, but for 40 minutes I think the Huskies are capable of not only keeping the Aztecs at bay, but pulling away for a comfortable win. Watch for the last few minutes of the first half and the first few minutes of the second half: This is where UConn separated itself from the competition in the tournament. If the Huskies win those average 5-6 minutes of the game, the final score is decided. Pick — UConn -7.5
Matt Norlander: I think the Aztecs have a good chance of keeping this game competitive for the reasons Parrish stated above. But UConn has been an intractable enigma for every non-conference team it has faced this season. We’ve gotten to the point of emptying the bench in the final minutes against teams with future lottery picks (Arkansas), the best offense in the sport (Gonzaga), and shutting down an otherwise really, really good team (Miami). Somewhere along the way, the Huskies learned how to dominate in a sloppy way, and I expect that to be the case again Monday night. Jordan Hawkins had the best game of all, while Donovan Clingan and Adama Sanogo combined for more than 30 points and 20 rebounds. Pick: UConn -7.5