If the Eagles want to win the NFC East for a second straight season and return to the Super Bowl, it won’t be easy, and that’s because they’ll face the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2023.
It’s been 20 years since the NFC East produced a repeat champion, and based on this year’s strength of schedule, it’s a drought that likely won’t end this season. Philadelphia has a strength of schedule of .566, which not only gives them the toughest schedule for the upcoming season, but makes them one of only two teams in the NFL – along with the Dolphins – that will have a strength of schedule above .550.
The Eagles’ rough schedule includes 10 games against 2022 playoff teams, tied for the most in the NFL. To put that into perspective, last year’s other Super Bowl team — Kansas City — will only have seven games against last season’s playoff teams.
The Eagles’ home schedule is particularly brutal, with six of their eight games coming against teams that made the playoffs last year (Cowboys, Giants, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins and Vikings). If you add the Commanders, that means seven of Philly’s eight home games will be against teams that finished 2022 with a record of .500 or better.
The second toughest schedule belongs to the Dolphins, who will face a brutal schedule on the road this year with games against the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, Ravens and Aaron Rodgers’ Jets.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the easiest power of the schedule belongs to Atlanta at .417. The Falcons play just four teams in the 2022 playoffs, the lowest number a team can play in a season based on the current scheduling formula.
If you’re looking for a division that could produce a few surprise teams next season, then you might want to take a look at the NFC South. One dark horse in this division might be Derek Carr’s Saints, who will face one of the easier schedules in the NFL.
At .427, the Saints have the second-easiest schedule in 2023 (the Falcons and Saints are the only two teams facing a strength of schedule below .430).
The good news for the Saints and/or Falcons is that in the last SEVEN YEARS at least one team playing one of the two easiest schedules has managed to finish the season. If this trend continues, then either New Orleans or Atlanta (or both teams) will make the playoffs in 2023.
The addition of the 17th game added some spice to the strength of schedule measurement, and that’s because it means the good teams now play tougher schedules. From 2002 to 2020, the schedule was essentially the same for everyone whether they played a “first place” program or a “last place” program. Each team played four games against the team that finished in first place, four games against teams that finished in second place, four games against teams that finished in third place, and four games against teams that finished in last place.
With the addition of the 17th game, a first-place team will now play against FIVE first-place teams, meaning you’ll rarely see a division winner with an easy schedule. Every team in the NFC East has a tough schedule this year, but the Eagles’ schedule is the toughest because they have to play five first-place teams, unlike the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders, who will only play four games against first-place teams. place.
Of the eight teams playing a “first-place” schedule in 2023, the Jaguars have it the easiest, which is notable because first-place teams have done well in that situation since the NFL switched to a 17-game schedule in 2021 The Cowboys had the “easiest” schedule for a top seed in 2022 and managed to turn that into a 12-5 record. The Bills had the “easiest” schedule for a top seed in 2021 and managed to turn that into an 11-6 record.
As far as teams playing in a “last place” scheme this year, the Falcons have the biggest win as they have the easiest schedule among the last ranked teams. On the other hand, the Jets, who also play in last place, have the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL, meaning it could be a tough year for them, even with the addition of Aaron Rodgers.
One team to watch might be the Houston Texans, who have the easiest schedule in the AFC. They may not make the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them improve a few games over their 2022 record of 3-13-1.
If you’re looking for teams that could take a step back this year based on strength of schedule, it would likely be the Giants and Dolphins, who will play two of the five toughest schedules.
The only thing about strength of schedule is that there is no perfect way to measure the difficulty of the schedule before the season starts. Thanks to injuries, free agency and trades, rosters change all the time and will continue to change between now and the season opener in September. That being said, strength of schedule gives you a good idea of what your favorite team will be up against in the upcoming season.
Here is the 2023 strength of schedule for each team (combined 2022 record of all 17 opponents, overall winning percentage).
|
1 |
eagles |
161-123-4 |
.566 |
|
2 |
Dolphins |
158-127-2 |
.554 |
|
3 |
Patriots |
156-128-3 |
.549 |
|
T-4 |
Cowboys |
156-128-4 |
.549 |
|
T-4 |
Giants |
157-129-2 |
.549 |
|
6 |
Jet planes |
155-129-3 |
.545 |
|
7 |
accounts |
155-131-2 |
.542 |
|
8 |
Commanders |
153-133-2 |
.535 |
|
9 |
Aries |
152-133-3 |
.533 |
|
10 |
Strikers |
150-136-2 |
.524 |
|
11 |
Cardinals |
148-147-3 |
.519 |
|
T-12 |
Chargers |
149-139 |
.517 |
|
T-12 |
Broncos |
148-138-2 |
.517 |
|
T-12 |
Sea hawks |
148-138-2 |
.517 |
|
15 |
49ers |
147-142-0 |
.514 |
|
16 |
Bosses |
147-140 |
.512 |
|
17 |
Bengalis |
146-140-2 |
.510 |
|
18 |
bears |
143-145-1 |
.497 |
|
19 |
Vikings |
143-145 |
.497 |
|
20 |
Lions |
143-146 |
.495 |
|
21 |
Ravens |
138-147-2 |
.484 |
|
22 |
pirates |
138-148-2 |
.483 |
|
23 |
Jaguars |
135-148-4 |
.477 |
|
24 |
Packers |
137-151-1 |
.476 |
|
25 |
Steelers |
134-151-2 |
.470 |
|
26 |
Brown |
131-154-2 |
.460 |
|
27 |
Panthers |
130-157-2 |
.453 |
|
28 |
Titans |
127-157-4 |
.448 |
|
29 |
Colts |
124-162-2 |
.434 |
|
30 |
Texans |
123-163-2 |
.431 |
|
31 |
saints |
122-164-3 |
.427 |
|
32 |
Falcons |
119-167-3 |
.417 |
If you’re curious about the schedule formula, each team plays 17 games as follows:
- Home and away against their opponents from all three divisions (six games).
- The four teams from another division within their conference on a rotating three-year cycle (four games).
- The four teams from one division in the other conference on a rotating four-year cycle (four games).
- Two intra-conference games based on previous year’s standings (two games). These games match up between a first-place team and a first-place team in the two divisions of the same conference in which the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second-, third-, and fourth-place teams in a conference are matched up the same way each year.
- One interconference game based on the previous year’s standings on a rotating four-year cycle (one game). These games pit a first-place team from one division against a first-place team in an opposite division in a conference in which the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second, third and fourth place teams in each division are matched in the same way each year. The home conference for this game will rotate each season.
Finally, here it is link to a list of every home and away opponent each team will play in 2023. The time and dates of each game will be posted on Thursday.