Alvin Kamara leads the potential Week 12 upsets

Editor’s note: The players listed below are NFL stars who have been drafted in almost every Yahoo Fantasy league. However, this column is not an endorsement of them in Week 12. You control your roster; every league size and shape is different. What we are trying to explain is that expectations should be lowered this week compared to usual for some of the NFL’s biggest stars. In addition to previewing this week’s matchups, this can also serve as a reminder not to overreact if one of your high draft picks disappoints you in Week 12.

Kamara has averaged just 12.0 touches over the past three games, including zero opportunities inside the 10-yard line. He has yet to score a touchdown on the road this season. Now he will travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. They haven’t allowed the running back to reach 60 rushing yards (or 50+ receiving yards) in a game this season. SF also gave up an NFL low 3.4 YPC – the next lowest is 3.8. That helps explain why the 49ers’ opponents have a 70.5 percent pass percentage at Levi’s Stadium this year.

It will be a tough fantasy sled for Alvin Kamara in Week 12. (Photo by Marc Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

New Orleans is dealing with multiple injuries along its offensive line, while San Francisco’s defense is giving up the second fewest yards per game this season (and just 4.2 YPP over the last three weeks). You’re not benching Kamara, but he’s not a strong DFS player this week, and another finish outside of the top-20 RB is likely expected.

Foreman has certainly impressed at times since then Christian McCaffrey was traded but most of his production came in two games against the Falcons. Foreman also saw just a third of the snaps after the first quarter last week when Chuba Hubbard play more. This week the Panthers get a stout Broncos defense allowing the third fewest yards per game and points per game this season. Denver’s opponents have the fourth-lowest run rate and this game features one of its lowest under/under (36.0) all season. Carolina’s offense is in such trouble that they willingly turn to him Sam Darnold.

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Depending on your alternatives, Foreman is a bench candidate this week.

Montgomery had a strong fantasy performance and acted as Chicago’s workhorse as expected Khalil Herbert last week, but he gets a much tougher defense on Sunday. The Jets are giving up the fourth-fewest yards per play this season – and they’re still getting better. Furthermore, Justin Fields will either miss this game or be compromised while playing due to a painful (non-throwing) shoulder injury (his backup is Trevor Siemian).

Montgomery may get more carries thanks to Fields’ injury, but Chicago’s offense will suffer either way. In fact, this game has a low total (39.5 points) despite featuring one of the worst defenses in the league (the Bears have one of the lowest implied totals this week). Temper expectations for Montgomery.

Dulcic was useful at an ugly fantasy tight end position, but his output was greatly enhanced by several dropped troughs. The rookie is also saddled with a Broncos offense averaging the fewest points per game and led by a quarterback who is on pace to throw fewer touchdowns than the number of bathrooms in his house.

Russell Wilson has struggled especially when targeting TEs and RBs this season and has done so worst TD% in the league in the red zonebut at least he’ll hit a $55.4 million cap hit in 2025 when he’s 37 years old.

Panthers opponents have the sixth-lowest pass percentage this season and Sam Darnold unlikely to put up many points against the Broncos defense. Dulcich’s projected usage should be significantly less this week in a game with an abominable 36.0 points.

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