After two close games to open this NBA Eastern Conference semifinal, the Heat asserted their will in Game 3 with a 19-point victory that shut down the Knicks’ offense on the road.
Will we see a resurgence in Game 4?
Miami once again comes in as a modest home favorite, and oddsmakers don’t expect either team’s offense to heat up after what we’ve seen in the first three games of this second-round series.
Here’s how we’re betting on Monday’s race, which begins at 7:30 PM ET on TNT.
Heat vs Knicks odds
(via BetMGM)
- Heat -4.5 (-110), money line -190
- Knicks +4.5 (-110), money line +155
- O/U 208.5 (below -115)
Heat vs. Knicks Prediction and Analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
During the regular season, the Knicks’ offense was one of the most efficient units in the entire league — ranking fourth in points per 100 possessions (117.0) despite ranking 20th in effective field goal percentage (54.1 %) and last in terms of assist ratio (54.6%).
It certainly seems like those latest grades have been better indicators of what to expect from New York’s offense in the postseason. And the results aren’t pretty.
Through eight games, the Knicks have scored just 106.6 points per 100 possessions – ranking fourth among the 16 teams in the playoffs and last among the eight teams still in the game.
They’ve shot worse than 48 percent in all eight of those contests and predictably rank last among the entire field in postseason assist percentage (51.6 percent).
It all came to a head in Saturday’s Game 3, when New York posted its second-worst marks of the entire year in points scored (86), field goal percentage (34.1%) and 3-point percentage (20%).
Only Jaylen Brunson (20) scored more than 15 points, needing 20 shots to get there, and no player on the roster shot better than 50 percent from the floor.
Clearly, some of that is on the Knicks, who have struggled to score in two series.
But it’s also a credit to the Heat’s reinvention on the defensive end.
Miami boasted a solid defensive rating (112.8) throughout the regular season, but possessed one of the worst defenses in the league after the All-Star break.
The Heat have since turned up the intensity during the postseason, holding opponents to a 111.1 offensive rating while forcing 13.6 turnovers per game.
Betting on the NBA?
It helps to have Jimmy Butler, who has been dynamic on both ends of the floor in these playoffs. He is averaging 34.4 points on 56.4% shooting through seven games.
However, he also held Knicks star Jaylen Brunson to just six points on 3-of-10 shooting on roughly 35 possessions in two Heat wins — while frustrating guards RJ Barrett (42.9%) and Josh Hart ( 28.6%) in these two games, too.
It’s no coincidence that New York’s only win in that series came with Butler on the sidelines in Game 2, when Brunson (30 points) and Julius Randle (25) battled ankle injuries to lead their team to a decisive home win before almost a week.
Butler returned in Game 3 and revitalized his team’s defense.
He’s also flanked by center Bam Adebayo, who has finished in the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting in four straight seasons.
With dynamic bench scorer Immanuel Quickley (ankle) doubtful to suit up for the Knicks, it will be even more difficult for them to break through against this rejuvenated Heat defense.
That leaves Miami just needing a modest scoring output from Butler or Adebayo — or a 3-point explosion from its cadre of long-range shooters in front of a raucous home crowd.