In the penultimate game of Sunday’s Round of 32, the fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers (-2) look to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016 against the fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes (8:40 p.m. ET, TNT).
Indiana cruised to a comfortable 71-60 first-round victory over 13th-seeded Kent State, scoring 1.11 points per possession while holding the Golden Flashes to 0.94 points per possession. The Hoosiers took advantage of Kent State’s undersized group, making 50 percent of their two-point shots (24-of-48). First-team All-Big Ten center Trace Jackson-Davis was his normal self, leading the Hoosiers with 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. the end of the second half.
Miami closed as the shortest favorite among the No. 5 seeds, but that didn’t stop the Hurricanes from earning a 63-56 victory over 12th-seeded Drake. The Bulldogs looked like they would be the only No. 12 seed to advance to the round of 16, leading the Hurricanes by eight with less than five minutes to play, but Miami dominated in crunch time and forced the Bulldogs into several hard-fought looks. The offense struggled for Miami, but they shut down the defensive end of the court, holding Drake to 40 percent shooting at 0.81 points per possession. The Hurricanes shot just 30.4 percent from the field, but made 23 of 29 free throws.
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Here’s everything you need to know about betting on Indiana vs. Miami in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for this Round of 32 matchup.
Indiana vs Miami odds
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
According to Sports Interaction, Indiana is a two-point favorite with a moneyline price of -127. As the odds suggest, Sunday night’s game is a virtual draw. The current total is at a relatively high 146 points, so the betting market is clearly expecting a bounce from Miami’s attack.
- Distribution: Indiana -2 (-110); Miami +2 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 146 (-110); UNDER 146 (-110)
- Money line: Indiana -127; Miami +106
Three betting trends to watch
— Indiana has been a winning team ATS this season, covering 57.6 percent of the games (19-14-1 ATS).
— They haven’t closed as underdogs often, but Miami has thrived in the underdog role this season, covering six of eight games (75 percent coverage rate).
— Despite thriving as underdogs, Miami has not been a winning ATS team this season, covering just 43.8 percent of games (14-18-1 ATS).
Key Indiana players
While Jackson-Davis is the team’s most-used player, the play of his frontcourt counterpart, Rayce Thompson, has been just as impactful to the Hoosiers’ success. Thompson showed up in Indiana’s first-round win, scoring 20 points on eight-of-11 shooting, and similar output Sunday will likely lead to a trip to the Sweet 16. Leading guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.3 ppg, 42 FG %) had a tough shooting performance in the first round, but he’s too gifted as a scorer to be held in check in two straight games.
Key Miami players
Miami relies on its backcourt tandem of Isaiah Wong (15.8 ppg, 44.4 FG%) and Nigel Pack (13.4 ppg, 43.6 FG%) to score off the dribble, but frontcourt figures Jordan Miller (15 points, 53.6 FG%) and Norchad Omier is just as impactful on the offensive end. Additionally, 6-5 sophomore Wooga Poplar is a capable spacer who connected on three of six three-point attempts against Drake.
Best Individual Match: Trayce Jackson-Davis vs. Norchad Omier
The battle of the big men is the matchup to watch in this one as Jackson-Davis has a chance to be neutralized by Omier. Omier struggled to contain Drake big man Darnell Brodie, who dropped 20 points on 9-of-14 shooting, but not many bigs can stay in front of the 6-10, 275-pounder for 40 minutes. If Omier can protect Jackson-Davis directly without forcing a double team, then the Hurricanes have a chance to stay competitive with the Hoosiers.
Indiana vs Miami info
While Miami enters Sunday’s game boasting the nation’s 12th-most efficient offense per KenPom (117.5 points per 100 possessions), their defense is the third-worst in the NCAA Tournament field, allowing 102. 1 points per 100 possessions (114th in D-1).
DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Market) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Indiana vs Miami Prediction
Indiana’s stability on both ends of the floor should result in a minimal win for the Hoosiers. Indiana will likely win the battle on the boards with Jackson-Davis and Thompson while their defense gets some key stops in the final minutes to advance to their first Sweet 16 since 2016. Miami’s interior defense was exploited by Indiana, enough for the Hoosiers to win by three points.
Forecast: Indiana 74, Miami 71. Indiana (-2) covers the spread as the game continues FLOOR total (146).
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