The New York Knicks and Miami Heat square off in a pivotal Game 4 on Monday night in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Heat lead the best-of-seven series in the 2023 NBA playoffs by a 2-1 margin after a 105-86 victory in Game 3 on Saturday afternoon. The Kaseya Center hosts Game 4 as the Heat look to clinch the series at home. Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Knicks. Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Caleb Martin (back) are listed as questionable for the Heat, and Tyler Hero (hand) remains out.
Tipoff is at 7:30 PM ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 4.5-point favorite at home, while the over/under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 207 in the latest Knicks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Knicks picks, you’ll want to check out the NBA predictions and betting tips from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $10,000 in profit per $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the Conference Semifinals of the 2023 NBA Playoffs with a stunning 71-38 record across all of the NBA’s top-rated picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone who has followed has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on the Heat vs. the Knicks and has just locked down its NBA playoff picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model selection. Here are some NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:
- Knicks vs. Heat spread: Heat -4.5
- Knicks vs. Heat Over/Under: 207 points
- Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat -190, Knicks +158
- NYK: The Knicks are 28-16-1 against the spread in road games
- MIA The Heat are 18-26-2 against the spread in home games
- Knicks vs. Heat picks: See SportsLine picks
Featured game | Miami Heat vs New York Knicks
Why the Knicks can cover
The Knicks have urgency in Game 4, but New York has been excellent on the road this season, providing optimism. The Knicks had the fifth-best net rating (+1.5) and win-loss record (24-17) away from home in the NBA during the regular season and also won twice in Cleveland during the first round. New York also has proven physicality on the offensive end. The Knicks finished in the NBA’s top five in offensive rebounding (31.8), second-chance points (16.2 per game) and free throw attempts (25.5 per game) during the regular season, and the offensive rebounds of New York have even improved in the playoffs.
The Knicks are grabbing 36.7 percent of available offensive rebounds and averaging 16.5 second-chance points per game in the postseason, and New York also has experience at strong ball security with a 13.1 percent turnover rate in the regular season. New York’s defense has also played well, allowing just 1.06 points per possession in the playoffs, and Tom Thibodeau plans to prepare his team for action in a hostile environment. See which side to back on SportsLine.
Why the heat can cover
Miami’s defense has made a leap so far in the series. The Heat are allowing just 1.05 points per possession to the Knicks, with New York averaging just 21.5 assists per game and shooting just 31.1 percent from 3-point range. Miami finished as a top-10 defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, allowing 112.8 points per 100 possessions, and the Heat posted top-five metrics in penalty kicks prevented, defensive rebounding, second-chance points allowed, turnovers created , points allowed in the paint and fast break points allowed for play over 82 contests.
Offensively, Miami was less prolific in the regular season, but the Heat found their footing in the postseason. Miami is scoring 1.17 points per possession in playoff games, shooting 39.2 percent from 3-point range and 48.2 percent on all field goal attempts. The Heat average nearly 26 free-throw attempts per game against the Knicks and commit just 10 fouls per contest against New York. See which side to back on SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
The model has simulated the Knicks vs. Heat 10,000 times and leans on the total, projecting 209 combined points. The model also says that one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only pick up the picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Knicks? And which side hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread to jump on, all from the model that went 71-38 in its NBA picks, and find out.