NFL Betting Trends – Wild Card 2024

The Detroit Lions have finally secured a home playoff game, and longtime Lions QB Matthew Stafford will be the one looking to rain on the parade. As our NFL Wild Card Trends report points out, Stafford and Goff can put on a show.

Last updated: January 9, 2024 3:26 PM ET
Reading time: 4 min

It’s playoff time baby!

Wild Card handicap odds can get a little tricky compared to your average regular season matchup. It’s win or go, which means emotions that are impossible to predict come into play, often leading to unlikely outcomes.

Sometimes an unheralded player will rise to the occasion and help lead his team to victory, while other times superstar players and coaches will melt under the bright lights and suffocate wins as they watch their Super Bowl chances disappear.

So, while you shouldn’t deviate from your typical handicapping process when making your NFL picks, don’t be shocked if you get completely opposite results from where your numbers lead you for some of these games.

I certainly won’t shy away from my NFL Odds Handicap process, which resulted in a 33.79 unit win during the regular season. Many of these picks were built based on the NFL betting trends found in this week’s article, so hopefully I and we can have a winning postseason!

The best NFL Wild Card betting trends

Browns vs. Texans

The trend: The Browns have outscored in all eight of their road games this season

The visiting Cleveland Browns averaged 54 points. The defense that everyone cares so much about hasn’t fared well as they’ve allowed an average of 29.6 points on the road. These teams played in Houston on Christmas Eve and even though CJ Stroud didn’t play, they combined for 58 points. This game has a total of 44.

See all Browns vs. Texans Wild Card trends.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs have gone under in the second half in 15 of 17 games

The trend that just doesn’t stop during the regular season returns for the playoffs. Kansas City Chiefs second halves averaged just 14.9 combined points during the regular season, with that number dropping to 13.8 in their home games.

The Miami Dolphins were also shut out in the second half to close out the regular season, with a combined 15 second-half points in their last three games. Miami shut out Kansas City in the final 30 minutes when these sides met in Germany. The total 2H for this game is 21.5.

See all Dolphins vs Chiefs Wild Card trends.

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Steelers vs. Bills

The trend: Bills are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit favorite (including playoffs)

The Buffalo Bills are certainly a hot opponent coming into the playoffs, but they have a bad habit of bowing to the competition, which has led to tight matchups against Bailey Zappé, Easton Stick and Zach Wilson.

And remember, they barely edged out Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins as a 15-point favorite in last season’s Wild Card game. Buffalo is a 10-favorite and the trends could even out here as the Pittsburgh Steelers are 9-4 ATS in the series as an underdog.

Check out all the Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card trends.

Packers vs. Cowboys

The trend: The Cowboys have surpassed their team total in seven of eight home games

The Dallas Cowboys came up short in their final home game of the season, but scored at least 30 points in each subsequent home game and even surpassed 40 points on four separate occasions.

The Green Bay Packers defense is a little hard to gauge as it only played one Top 10 scoring offense that had its starting QB, but there were some red flags such as allowing 30+ point games to the Bucs and The Panthers (!!!) in December. Dallas’ overall team score is 30.5.

Check out all the Packers vs Cowboys Wild Card trends.

Aries vs. Leos

The trend: These teams are a combined 11-3 heading into Week 12 Over

It’s no coincidence that this game has the highest total of the week at 51.5. The Los Angeles Rams enter the game hot – averaging 31.3 points in Matthew Stafford’s last six starts – while the Detroit Lions are averaging 30.5 points at home. This could be a great day for Stafford and Jared Goff as each defense struggles against the pass, ranking 27th and 31st in completion yards allowed.

Check out all the Rams vs. Lions Wild Card trends.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

The trend: The Eagles road under record plus the Bucs record at home is 13-4

We have a total of 44 points for this game, which is 9.3 points higher than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers average combined home game score this season. The Philadelphia Eagles have had trouble scoring on the road, where they are averaging just 20.7 points — 10.2 points less than what they are averaging at home. These teams met in Tampa Bay in Week 3, where the Birds won 25-11.

Check out all the Eagles vs Buccaneers Wild Card trends.

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