NFL Clutch QB Index Week 12: Patrick Mahomes wows (again) as Zach Wilson plummets down rankings

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Tua has converted 11 of 14 career tying/overtime chances in the fourth quarter/overtime, and his fourth quarter/overtime one-score passer rating is 125.4. Both are career best numbers by any current starting QB. He backed up the numbers with big plays late in wins over the Bills and Ravens this season. We’ll see how long Mahomes can last with Miami’s schedule featuring a tough final six games (at 49ers, at Chargers, at Bills, vs. Packers, at Patriots, vs. Jets). 2
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Mahomes has converted at least 60% of his game-tying/go-ahead chances in both the regular season and playoffs. His regular season rating ranks second only to Tua. His playoff percentage is the best in the NFL. After costly late picks in losses to the Colts and Bills this year, he rebounded in a huge way with comeback wins against the Titans and Chargers. 3
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Rodgers doesn’t get the same recognition as Brady for his one ring, but his career conversion percentages in the regular season (42%) and playoffs (56%) are nearly identical to Brady’s. Look no further than the late playoff games against the Cardinals and Cowboys to see why they are so high. (+1) 4
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Allen ranks sixth in career game-tying/go-ahead conversion rate (43), but has had a mixed performance in the clutch this season. He led late wins in Baltimore and Kansas City earlier, but fell short against the Jets and Vikings, including a couple of bad losses against Minnesota. (+1) 5
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Matty Ice has been one of the strongest QBs in the league this season despite a tumultuous campaign. He has the third-highest fourth-quarter passer rating of one-score games this year and leads the NFL with four fourth-quarter touchdown passes. His resume didn’t need much help. He is one shy of tying Dan Marino for the fifth most games won of all time. (+1) 6
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He lived up to the nickname “Joe Cool” with huge comebacks that ended with game-winning plays in both wins against the Chiefs and “Mr. Clutch” Patrick Mahomes last season. Burrow ranks near or in the top 10 overall. He recently padded his numbers with a touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase against the Saints in Week 6. A rematch with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs looms in Week 13. (+2) 7
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Cousins’ career has been average, but ignore his prime-time reputation and he’s stepped up in the clutch this year. He’s 7-for-9 on game-tying/go-ahead fourth-quarter/overtime tackles this season, the best conversion rate of any QB in the league with at least five chances. His passer rating in late, close situations this year is more than 100. 8
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TB12 is probably the most clutch QB of all time, other than maybe Joe Montana. He ranks behind only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers in playoff conversion rate for game-tying/go-ahead chances (56%). These rankings don’t take Super Bowl rings into account and aim to answer the question of who is the strongest right now, and 2022 Brady doesn’t do him any favors. However, his stock rose after back-to-back victories. (+1) 9
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Landing Garoppolo one spot behind Tom Brady here feels like a crime. However, Garoppolo’s career passer rating in late, close games ranks third behind Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes. He’s also been better in the clutch this year in a limited capacity, such as the 49ers’ Week 10 return against the Chargers. Still, the gap in the playoffs is as wide as the Grand Canyon. Garoppolo’s perception won’t change until he performs in the playoffs after the 49ers blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and the Rams in the 2021 NFC Championship Game. Garoppolo and Brady meet for the first time in Week 14, so maybe they can settle that score (and some others) then. (+1) 10
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Jackson has the fourth-best career game-tying/go-ahead conversion rate (50%). Last year’s comeback against the Colts was a reminder that he absolutely can beat you handily at the end of games. He just didn’t do much this year, throwing critical interceptions late in losses to the Bills and Giants. He did enough to earn a win against Carolina in Week 11. (+2) 11
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Dak came up empty in his first clutch chance this season, failing to lead Dallas in shots late in Green Bay. He’s 11th in scoring based on the small sample this season, but ranks in the top seven in career scoring here, including a career passer rating over 100 in late, close situations. 12
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Hurts has a 100+ fourth quarter passer rating in five straight games and leads the NFL in fourth quarter passer rating/overtime by one score this year. His career numbers are still average, but he moves up the rankings with a breakout season. (+5) 13
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Wilson has among the league’s most winning games since entering the NFL in 2012, but ranks in the middle of the pack in career game-tying/scoring conversion percentage. He moved up the rankings this week after leading two goals in the fourth quarter against the Raiders on Sunday, even though Denver’s defense couldn’t hold onto the lead and Wilson never got the ball in overtime. (+6) 14
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Like Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford is always atop the game-winning lists, while his career conversion rate is close to league average. However, we saw what he can do last postseason. (-1) 15
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Carr’s career has been full of thrilling late comebacks. His career game-tying/go-ahead conversion rate (42%) ranks seventh among current starters and is actually nearly identical to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. This year, though, he’s down, except for the Raiders’ overtime win in Week 11. He’s 5-of-19 on fourth-quarter/overtime game-tying/overtime shots this season, and Las Vegas is 1-6 in one-score games after going 7-2 last year. (-1) 16
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Jones is the reason you can’t just use winning drives to determine a player’s grip. Earlier this year, he set the record for most sacks (five) in seven games in a season in NFL history, but his passer rating is 59.1 in the fourth quarter of one-score games this year. He hasn’t made challenging clutch throws this season. His 10 completions in five game-winning games have gone for a total of 25 yards. (-1) 17
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Tannehill’s career numbers are close to league average, but he is 0-5 in playoff games with a chance to tie or take the lead late, including last year’s playoff loss to the Bengals. (+3) 18
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Herbert sits at No. 18 here after being on the wrong end of another thrilling Patrick Mahomes comeback in Week 11. Herbert led an impressive late touchdown run but couldn’t make Mahomes answer with 31 seconds left and down three points. His career completion percentage (44%) at the end of games is fifth in the NFL, but he is 12th this season. Additionally, his fourth-quarter passer rating/extended game per one-score game is just 69.2 in 2022, 19th in the league. 19
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Dalton’s career numbers are below average, but he ranks in the middle of the pack here, having successfully converted 3-of-6 game-tying/go-ahead chances in the fourth quarter/overtime this year. (+3) 20
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Mariota’s career conversion rate (41%) in terms of game-tying chances/hit rate ranks 12th among current starters just behind Tom Brady. Once upon a time, he led a miraculous playoff comeback in Kansas City. He’s also converted 7-of-13 clutch drives this year. (-4) 21
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Wilson’s stay in the top five was never going to be long based on his small sample size in the clutch and the way he played. It all came crashing down after he missed a couple of chances against the Patriots. (-18) 22
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Goff’s career marks are near the bottom of the league and he is 1-7 with a chance to tie or take the lead late for the Lions this year. (+1) 23
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Geno’s career resurgence hasn’t translated into many clutch opportunities this year, but if he continues to perform like he did late in Week 8 in a win against the Giants, he’ll move up the rankings. (-2) 24
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Heinicke keeps the Commanders starting QB job with Carson Wentz healthy enough to return. He’s had his clutch moments this year, like an incredible comeback against the Colts, but his fourth-quarter interception in double coverage against the Eagles could have easily cost Washington the game. He has the third-worst career conversion rate (26%) in terms of game-tying/go-ahead chances at the end of games, behind only Davis Mills and Kenny Pickett. (+1) 25
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Brissett might have had a game-winning drive against the Ravens in Week 6 if Amari Cooper wasn’t called for an OPI on a late TD. Still, Brissett’s numbers are lacking here, and he’ll soon cede his starting role to Deshaun Watson. (+2) 26
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Murray ranks near the bottom by most criteria, and our last memory of him in clutch time was his slide-and-spike gaffe against the then-undefeated Eagles earlier this year. 27
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Jones’ career numbers are average to below average for the league, and he is 0-5 on strikeouts with a chance to tie or lead at the end of the season. He threw a fumble in the end zone against the Ravens in Week 3 off his back foot and did nothing against the Jets in Week 11 with a chance to win the game late. (-3) 28
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He may be emerging as a star quarterback, but he has yet to make an impact in the clutch. The Bears are 5-18 on game-tying/go-ahead conversions in the fourth quarter and overtime this year. They have lost six straight games that have been decided by one possession. Fields has the worst passer rating in the final five minutes of regulation this year (31.4). 29
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Mills converted just 1 of 17 game-tying/go-ahead chances for the Texans in his career. His passer rating at the end of games is over 80, which is the only reason he isn’t in last place here. 30
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Darnold has taken over the Panthers’ starting QB job (for now) and debuts at No. 30 here. He has the second-worst passer rating in late, close games (54.8) of his career among current starters. 31
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Lawrence has yet to find his footing at the end of games. He has led the Jaguars down the field to tie or lead just 28 percent of his career opportunities, fourth-worst in the league. He has the third-worst passer rating in late, close situations of his career. (-1) 32
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Pickett debuted at the bottom of our rankings after accumulating enough sample size to qualify. He’s turned in just 1-of-8 chances to tie or lead late this year and has a 42.2 passer rating in late, close games — worst in the league.

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