NFL Week 12 odds, picks: Cowboys beat Giants on Thanksgiving, Steelers beat Colts Monday night

And just like that, it’s Thanksgiving. We’re almost two-thirds of the way through the 2022 regular season, and we can now treat ourselves to some turkey and stuffing to celebrate. We’ve also got a great trio of Thanksgiving games to sink our teeth into once the tryptophan kicks in and we sink into our couches.

Of course, several of those Thanksgiving games made their way into my five weekly picks for Week 12 along with a few other games on deck later this weekend, which include a Monday Night Football matchup and a team that re keeping up, which is putting in double digits at home.

Record for 2022

Regular season
Locks of the week ATS
: 25-26-4
ATS: 72-86-6
ML: 97-67

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys -10

It sets up a Cowboys loss in almost identical fashion to Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just a few days ago. New York showed some cracks in its core in the loss to Detroit and lost several key contributors, including top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson. That should allow the Cowboys’ offense to continue humming, but their defense can really put the game away. The Giants are allowing the second-highest rushing percentage (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys are putting the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times in the win, the third most of any game this season. With the Giants so stacked and Dallas playing at a championship level, they will win this one by double digits.

Expected result: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
The choice: Cowboys -9.5

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins -13.5

The Texans could very well make a change at quarterback before or during this game, but the point of this game largely remains the same. Miami has a Week 11 bye and is currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC and is still undefeated (7-0) when Tua Tagovailoa plays a full game. Hard Rock Stadium has also been kind to the Dolphins lately as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins have already shown us they can put up points, scoring 30 or more in the three games leading up to the bye, and there’s no reason to think they won’t get there again as they face a 29- it place in DVOA. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense hasn’t scored more than 20 points since Week 7.

Expected result: Dolphins 33, Texans 17
The choice: Dolphins -13

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts -2.5

Yes, I’m stubborn. I faded the Colts the last two weeks in my locks and Jeff Saturday burned me both times. Well, I’m going back to the well again, which may be a reason to call me clinically insane, but the Steelers are the club that needs to go back to that spot. Pittsburgh should be able to pressure Matt Ryan as Indy’s O-line showed some cracks, allowing pressure on 11.1 percent of Ryan’s drops Sunday against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Steelers blitz as much as any other team in the league entering Week 12, which means TJ Watt should feast on this favorable matchup. On top of that, Pittsburgh’s defensive defense ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in DVOA, suggesting the unit has the ability to slow down Jonathan Taylor.

Expected result: Steelers 23, Colts 21
The choice: Steelers +2.5

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions +9.5

The Lions have been rolling the past few weeks, but I just have a hard time betting against Josh Allen with this line under double digits. Yes, Detroit’s defense played better in their previous three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo’s offense is a completely different animal. Allen has played well on Thanksgiving in the past as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB has registered a 100+ passer rating in each contest. While I believe Buffalo’s offense can go 30 indoors at Ford Field, I don’t see the Lions doing so in this setting. Specifically, I have doubts because of the defense in front of Jared Goff. Detroit ranked as the 24th pass blocking team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass rushing team in the league under the same ranking system.

Expected result: Bills 33, Lions 21
The choice: Accounts -9.5

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns +3.5

Tampa Bay seemed to turn a corner right before the bye. After rallying to beat the Rams in Week 9 and then blowing past the Seahawks — who were 2.5-point favorites — in Germany, it really feels like the Bucs are on the verge of completely righting the ship. They ran the ball well in Week 10 (161 yards on 44 attempts) and Tom Brady looked sharp with his array of stout receivers. Meanwhile, they get a Browns team that could be disappointed after giving the Bills a run for their money on Sunday and are on the verge of getting Deshaun Watson back next week. Since Kevin Stefanski arrived in Cleveland, the club is 17-26 ATS, the second-worst ATS mark in the NFL over that span.

Expected result: Buccaneers 27, Browns 20
The choice: Buccaneers -3.5

The rest of the group

Patriots in Vikings
Expected result: Vikings 24, Patriots 17
The choice: Vikings -2.5

Bengals at Titans
Expected result: Titans 24, Bengals 23
The choice: Titans +1.5

Bears at Jets
Expected result: Jets 26, Bears 20
The choice: Jets -4.5

Falcons to the commanders
Expected result: Commanders 26, Falcons 20
The choice: Commanders -4.5

Broncos at Panthers
Expected result: Panthers 23, Broncos 17
The choice: Panthers +2.5

Crows among jaguars
Expected result: Jaguars 24, Ravens 23
The choice: Jaguars +4

Chargers at Cardinals
Expected result: Chargers 30, Cardinals 23
The choice: Chargers -4.5

Raiders at Seahawks
Expected result: Seahawks 27, Raiders 23
The choice: Seahawks -3.5

Aries at superiors
Expected result: Chiefs 30, Rams 20
The choice: Aries +14.5

Saints at 49ers
Expected result: 49ers 30, Saints 23
The choice: Saints +9

Packers at Eagles
Expected result: Eagles 33, Packers 23
The choice: Eagles -7

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