NHL playoff standings update: Projecting the Predators’ chances

Tim KavanaughESPN.com7:00 am ET8 minutes of reading

Ahead of the March 3 trade deadline, the Nashville Predators appeared to be looking ahead to 2023-24 and beyond after trading Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, Matthias Ekholm and Mikael Granlund for a royal ransom for draft picks.

But a strange thing has been happening concurrently with all of that handing out: Since Feb. 21, the Preds have earned a point in nine of their 11 games, going 8-2-1 in that span, including five one-goal wins, according to ESPN Stats & Info. In that span, they rank in the NHL’s top 5 in scoring percentage, penalty kill percentage, power play percentage and fewest goals scored.

Can they really grab one of the wild card spots in the West?

The streak continues Thursday when the Predators host the Chicago Blackhawks (8 ET, ESPN+/Hulu), a club they beat in both meetings this season.

After Thursday, the schedule gets tougher for Nashville, with 13 of its last 16 games coming against teams currently in playoff position. The Predators play two games each against the Seattle Kraken and Winnipeg Jets, two teams currently in wild card positions. These games will be as close as must-wins as the Predators are four points behind the Jets (with three games in hand) and six points behind the Kraken (with two games in hand).

FiveThirtyEight gives the Preds a 39% chance to make the playoffs. That might not seem high, but given where things stood weeks ago, it’s pretty remarkable.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check out all the playoff races — along with the teams vying for a position in the 2023 NHL Draft lottery.

Note: Playoff odds are via FiveThirtyEight.

Next:
Current playoff matches
Today’s games
Last night’s results
Advanced ranking
Race for the #1 pick

Current playoff matches

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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The games on Thursday

Note: All times are Eastern. All non-ESPN, TNT or NHL Network games are available through NHL Power Play, which is included with an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers, 7 p.m
Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators, 8 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m
Vancouver Canucks vs. Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m
Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m
Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m
Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m

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Wednesday scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Colorado Avalanche 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (SO)
Washington Capitals 5, Buffalo Sabers 4 (SO)
Minnesota Wild 8, St. Louis Blues 5
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 3

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Advanced ranking

Atlantic Division

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: A1
Remaining games: 16
Dot rate: 131
Next game: @ WPG (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A2
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 109
Next game: vs. CAR (Friday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 104
Next game: @ New Jersey (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 89
Next game: vs MTL (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 43%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 15
Dot rate: 88
Next game: @ PHI (Friday)
Playoff Chances: 13%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 86
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 4%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 85
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff Chances: 2%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 72
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 10

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Capital Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Remaining games: 16
Dot rate: 119
Next game: @ TOR (Friday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Remaining games: 15
Dot rate: 115
Next game: vs TB (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Remaining games: 15
Dot rate: 105
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 96
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 77%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Remaining games: 12
Dot rate: 91
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff Chances: 51%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 13
Dot rate: 87
Next game: vs STL (Friday)
Playoff Chances: 11%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 72
Next game: vs. BUF (Friday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 11

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 16
Dot rate: 61
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 3

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Central Division

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 105
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 104
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff Chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: C3
Remaining Games: 16
Dot rate: 102
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 95
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 66%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 17
Dot rate: 95
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 39%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 77
Next game: @WSH (Friday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 14

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 74
Next game: vs VAN (Thursday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 10

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 15
Dot rate: 64
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 3

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Pacific Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 109
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 105
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 99
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Remaining games: 15
Dot rate: 99
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 87%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 89
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 14%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 16
Dot rate: 78
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 16

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining games: 14
Dot rate: 65
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff Chances:
Tragic number: 3

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Remaining Games: 14
Dot rate: 62
Next game: vs SEA (Thursday)
Playoff Chances: 0%
Tragic number: e

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Race for the #1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes last is not guaranteed the #1 pick. Starting in 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if they win the lottery, so only 11 teams can enter the lottery for the No. 1 pick. Full details of the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on this summer’s draft board is Connor Bedard, who is being lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25

Notes on traded picks affecting the top 16: