Highlights from every Premier League match to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app immediately after full-time; watch Chelsea v Everton live on Sky Sports Premier League from 5pm; start 17.30
from Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
8:51 UK Saturday 18 March 2023
After tipping Ben Chilwell to score first at 33/1 last weekend, Jones Nose is back to unleash his betting analysis and goal predictions for Premier League fixtures.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One area that interests me in Aston Villa’s games is the much higher line that Unai Emery asks his defenders to play, especially at home. This leads to games full of ambushes at Villa Park.
There have been a total of 40 tackles in their last seven Premier League home games since the resumption of the World Cup, an average of 5.7 per game. Incredibly, Villa’s opposition were responsible for 32 of those tackles, demonstrating just how aggressive Emery’s high line is, with Palace racking up six and Leicester eight in their matches at Villa Park.
What a weekend it was for Jones Knows! He tipped….
- Ben Chilwell scored first at 33/1
- Alexis McAllister scored first at 15/2
- Bournemouth 2+ ambushes at 11/10
- Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11
- Arsenal to win 3-0 at 14/1
- Man Utd v Saints 0-0 HT exact score at 5/2
- Aston Villa 2+ First Half Shots on Goal at 8/11
- West Ham draw 1-1 with Villa at 6/1
Bournemouth’s three or more tackle line at 13/8 with Sky Bet makes sense, but for a bit of certainty I’d prefer to play the match’s total tackle line at four or more so we can include both teams’ tackle numbers, which is valued above at Evens.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brentford v Leicester Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
To score at Brentford you need to be able to withstand a barrage of pressure in your box. The Bees are unashamedly direct and it’s a style of football that many teams cannot cope with.
I am confident in stating that Leicester will not enjoy such a defence. Brendan Rodgers’ side, who are without Wout Faes through suspension, remain a fragile side who lose out at key moments in games, especially when tasked with defending their own box. The Foxes share joint-most World Cup defeats with Southampton (8) and joint-most goals conceded with Everton (21) – they are certainly in the relegation mix and 7/2 with Sky Bet for them could prove to be a bit of a lump.
Brentford, meanwhile, are unbeaten in nine home games in the Premier League, winning four of their last five and have a striker in Ivan Toney who is in his element leading the line for this side. 19/20 with Sky Bet for a home win looks on the generous side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Southampton v Tottenham Saturday 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Forget Harry Kane, Ben Davies’ play at left-back looks critical to whether or not Tottenham function. Davis has been cast in that role in three of the Spurs’ last six games. They won all three 7-1 on aggregate, while without him in that left-back role they lost crucial games to Sheffield United, AC Milan and Wolves.
The balance he provides down that side seems to make Spurs stutter. If he does play in that role at St Mary’s then he should be backed in his attacking markets, starting with him, to have at least one chance at 11/10 with Sky Bet. He has seven strikes in his last seven Premier League games and Spurs will be on the front foot against the league’s basement boys.
The real beauty of this bet is that we get two methods of attack in terms of how it can land. Davies clearly has huge license to link up with his forwards in Antonio Conte’s system from open play, but he is also a big threat from set pieces, having scored twice this season. He is 12/1 to score again here.
SCORE FORECAST: 0-2
Wolves v Leeds Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Wolves have now gone 37 Premier League games without a striker scoring for them in over a year. The last striker to score was Raul Jimenez against Watford in March 2022. But signs promise that this barren run is about to end as Jimenez has returned to form over the past month.
He led the line superbly at Fulham and missed a big chance, came off the bench to change the game in the win over Tottenham and was unlucky not to win a penalty last weekend at Newcastle in another strong individual performance. This just might be the weekend he gets his moment in the sun. In what is likely to be a tumultuous encounter full of scares, a goal could settle the matter and backing Jimenez to get it at 7/1 with Sky Bet looks a reasonable play in my eyes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea v Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Eight days can be a long time in football. Graham Potter has made it three wins in a row this term and confidence should finally be flowing into the Chelsea camp, making them hard to bet against this one.
A bet that again stands out for Chelsea is the link between Joao Felix and Kai Havertz. Potter is building an improving offensive game around the skill set of the talented duo and it’s only a matter of time before Havertz assists Felix for a goal.
And now is the time to act with Everton at City defending deep and allowing the pair to work their magic. Havertz has created nine chances for Felix in all competitions, including two shots that hit the frame amid an expected goals worth of 1.2 – but they are yet to register an assist-goal combination.
Felix to score with an assist from Havertz is a 12/1 shot with Sky Bet. Now is the time to land.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Arsenal v Crystal Palace Sunday 14:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Has anyone double checked the fixture list to make sure Crystal Palace haven’t already played Arsenal away this season? It seems like every game they have right now is a tough task.
They are now just three points clear of the relegation zone, with their poor form costing Patrick Vieira his job on Friday.
The market has completely ignored Palace at 12/1 against the league leaders, but that really seems small considering Arsenal have had a solid turnaround since Thursday and have played with a bit of nerve in home games of late.
Palace struggle for creativity but remain a difficult team to take down. In their last 10 Premier League games, they have conceded just nine goals – the fifth-best defensive record in the league over that period, as the return of Mark Guehi and Joachim Andersen has been a huge help.
Despite this absurdly difficult run of games, which includes double legs against Brighton and Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea and Brentford, Palace have not lost by more than one goal in 10 of those games. They can keep it respectable again and Evens for Palace with a +2 goal handicap meaning we win if they win, draw or lose by one goal seems a fair price to me.