I present to you my new charts of retail sales on quarterly moving averages to smooth out the large peaks and troughs from month to month that interfere with trends.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
OK, I’ve experienced the artificial and pointless drama of monthly ups and downs in seasonally adjusted retail sales that are subject to large upward or downward revisions in the following month. Retailers report their sales quarterly, and GDP is reported quarterly in the US, so I’ll switch my retail sales charts to a quarterly moving average, which eliminates much of the noise that obscures the trends. And the last six months have been particularly tumultuous with huge ups and downs.
Falling prices have an impact on retail sales. Also note that the CPI for many categories of products that these retailers sell has fallen, with gasoline prices falling, food prices falling, and prices of many goods falling as inflation shifts to services, and retailers do not sell services; they sell goods. A price cut means a drop in sales, even when the retailer sells the same amount of merchandise. Further below, you’ll see a chart of sales by gas station overlaid with a chart of the CPI for gasoline, and they obviously go about the same because consumers buy roughly the same amount of gasoline in gallons, but when prices change so dramatically, revenue (in dollars) change with prices.
So this is my classic chart. Total retail salesseasonally adjusted, it fell 1.0% in March from February after a decline in February, a huge jump of 3.1% in January, declines in December and November and a jump in October.
And this is my new chart of total retail sales as a quarterly moving average. The March Quarterly Moving Average = the average of January, February and March representing Q1.
Retail sales in the first quarter were up 1.7% from the fourth quarter and up 5.4% from the same period last year!
Reminder: Do not apply overall CPI to retail sales because inflation has shifted to services and retailers sell goods and prices of many goods have fallen or collapsed, such as 17% for petrol! (My detailed discussion on inflation).
The inset shows the latest details of the trend: a slowdown at the end of last year and a rise so far this year:
Retail sales by category, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted.
Dealers in new and used vehicles and parts (19% of total retail sales):
- Sales: $131 billion
- From the previous month: +1.2%
- On an annual basis: +1.5%
- CPI used vehicles: -0.9% for the month, -11.2% year-on-year
- CPI new vehicles: +0.4% for the month, +6.1% year-on-year.
E-commerce and other “non-store retailers” (16% of total retail sales), e-commerce retailers, e-commerce operations of brick-and-mortar retailers and stalls and markets:
- Sales: $114 billion
- From the previous month: +2.0%
- Year-on-year: +9.8%
Food services and places to drink (13% of total retail trade), includes restaurants, cafes, bars, etc.
- Sales: $93 billion
- From the previous month: +1.2%
- Year-on-year: +17.5%
- CPI for “food away from home”: +0.6% for the month, +8.8% for the year:
Food and beverage stores (12% of total retail):
- Sales: $81 billion
- From the previous month: +0.1%
- On an annual basis: +5.5%
- Food at home CPI: -0.3% month-on-month, +8.4% year-on-year:
General Stores, excluding department stores (9% of total retail):
- Sales: $61 billion
- From the previous month: -0.1%
- Year-on-year: +7.4%
Gas stations (8% of total retail):
- Sales: $57 billion
- From the previous month: -2.4%
- Yearly: -4.0%
- CPI for gasoline: -4.6% for the month, -17.4% for the year:
This chart shows the relationship between the CPI for gasoline (green, right axis) and sales in billions of dollars at gas stations, including the other goods sold by gas stations (red, left axis):
Stores for building materials, garden equipment and equipment (6% of total retail):
- Sales: $42 billion
- From the previous month: -0.7%
- Yearly: -0.6%
Clothing and accessories stores (4% of total retail):
- Sales: $26 billion
- From the previous month: -0.3%
- Year-on-year: +3.3%
- CPI clothing: +0.3% for the month, +3.3% year-on-year.
Retailers in a variety of stores, including cannabis stores (2.3% of total retail): Specialty shops, from art shops to wine shops. Cannabis stores are driving growth in this category.
- Sales: $16 billion, seasonally adjusted
- Month over month: +1.1%.
- Year-on-year: +5.2%
- CPI Cannabis doesn’t exist yet. But according to the Cannabis Benchmarks US Spot Index, average prices have fallen 18% year over year.
Furniture and home furnishing stores (1.7% of total retail):
- Sales: $12 billion, seasonally adjusted
- From the previous month: +0.4%
- On an annual basis: +0.9%
- CPI Home Furnishings: +0.8% for the month, +5.8% year-on-year.
department stores (now down to 1.7% of total retail as consumers increasingly buy these things online, including on the e-commerce sites of the few surviving department store chains):
- Sales: $11.6 billion
- From the previous month: +3.2%
- Year-on-year: +2.4%
- Since peak in 2001: -40% despite 21 years of inflation.
Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (1.3% of total retail trade);
- Sales: $9.4 billion
- Month over month: 0%
- On an annual basis: +4.8%.
Electronics and electrical appliance stores: Specialty electronics and appliance stores (Best Buy, Apple Stores, etc.), excluding electronics and appliance sales online and at other retailers.
- Sales: $7.0 billion, seasonally adjusted
- Month over month: +0.7%
- Year over year: -5.7%
- CPI consumer electronics: -0.4% for the month, -11.5% y/y.
- CPI adjusted: +0.7% for the month, +1.1% for the year.
Love reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced tea mug to find out how:
Want to be notified by email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? Register here.
