Sunday’s NBA fantasy basketball tips and betting picks

ESPN Fantasy Basketball and Basketball Betting Tips is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data, including ESPN’s own Basketball Power Index (BPI), to help you make smart decisions for fantasy and betting. January 29 NBA odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and fantasy tips are based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know about Sunday’s games

Give Pacers: With Tyrese Haliburton likely to be sidelined, the Indiana Pacers’ struggles, especially on the road, seem likely to continue. They have failed to cover each of their last six road games, losing by an average of 7.6 points more than the spread predicted.

Point-Happy Hornets: Say what you will about the Charlotte Hornets, but they play an exciting brand of basketball that encourages scoring. Will this work against the Miami Heat? That’s up to you, but if it does, you’re rooting for the home team. Only twice since the start of December has the Hornets been held under 220 points … The Heat are 6-12-1 ATS in games that reach that number.

Congestion in overs: Sports betting as a whole has managed to adjust to the pace and tempo of 2023, but two games on this limited list continue to buck that trend. Milwaukee Bucks (vs New Orleans Pelicans) have seen 12 of their last 15 home games go over the top and the over is 7-2-1 in Memphis Grizzlies (vs Indiana Pacers) last 10 home games.

— Jim McCormick and Kyle Sope

Breaking the Sunday paper

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
1 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Records (vs. distribution)
Series: 28-22 (19-28-3)
Hornets: 14-36 (21-27-2)

row: Heat (-6)
BPI Projection: Heat (113.8-111.5)
Money line: Heat (-225), Hornets (+185)
BPI Expected Winner: Heat (58.6%)
Total: 224 points BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points

Injury Report:
Series: Caleb Martin, (GTD – Quadriceps); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD – Lower Leg); Max Strus, (GTD – shoulder); Duncan Robinson, (OUT – finger); Nikola Jovic, (OUT – Back); Omer Yurtseven, (OUT – Ankle)
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD – knee); Kelly Oubre Jr., (OUT – arm)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are excluded, but assume GTD players will play

Best bet: LaMelo Ball over 13.5 total rebounds + assists. Ball averaged 9.4 APG and 5.3 RPG in the 10 games before injuring his ankle, totaling 13.5 in six of them. In his first game back from injury on Thursday, he grabbed 11 boards and dished out eight assists. Ball should have a clear size advantage over Kyle Lowry or Tyler Hero, which gives him a window to rebound and always have clear double-digit assists on every play. — Andre Snellings

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
6 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, TN

Records (vs. distribution)
Pacers: 24-27 (27-24-0)
Grizzlies: 31-18 (23-23-3)

row: Grizzlies (-9.5)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (121.5-114.0)
Money line: Pacers (+345), Grizzlies (-455)
BPI Expected Winner: Grizzlies (75%)
Total: 241 points BPI Projected Total: 240.1 points

Injury Report:
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD – Wrist); Andrew Nembhardt, (GTD – Disease); Myles Turner, (GTD – ankle); Daniel Theis, (OUT – knee); Tyrese Haliburton, (OUT – knee)
Grizzlies: Desmond Bain, (GTD – knee); John Konchar, (OUT – Concussion); Danny Green, (OUT – knee); Steven Adams, (OUT – knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are excluded, but assume GTD players will play

Fantasy Streamer: TJ McConnell (Available in 67.9% of leagues) McConnell should start every game for fantasy managers while Tyrese Halliburton is out. He entered the Pacers’ starting lineup and averaged 18.5 PPG, 9.8 APG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG and 0.5 3PG in 36.3 MPG over his last four games. — Snellings

Fantasy Streamer: Chris Duarte (available in 92.9% of leagues) Duarte has finally woken up after an incredibly slow start to the season. In his last three games, he moved into the starting lineup and averaged 14.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.7 APG, 2.7 SPG and 2.0 3PG in 33.0 MPG. — Snellings

LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio

Records (vs. distribution)
Clippers: 28-24 (26-26-0)
Cavalier: 30-21 (25-24-2)

row: Cavaliers (-5.5)
BPI Projection: cavaliers (115.7.1-113.2)
Money line: Clippers (+185), Cavaliers (-225)
BPI Expected Winner: cavaliers (59.1%)
Total: 215 points BPI Projected Total: 224 points

Injury Report:
Clippers: Marcus Morris, Sr. (GTD – Ribs); John Wall, (OUT – Belly)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (GTD – Groin); Kevin Love, (GTD – Back); Dylan Windler, (OUT – Hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are excluded, but assume GTD players will play

Fantasy Streamer: Norman Powell (available in 69.9% of leagues) Powell looks likely to get more run Sunday with the Clippers in the second half of a back-to-back. Powell is averaging 19.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.2 3PG, 1.8 APG and 0.6 SPG in 27.1 MPG over his last 12 outings. — Snellings

Best bet: Cavaliers -5.5. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable for Sunday’s game, which seems unlikely based on their typical history. While Donovan Mitchell is also listed as questionable, the Cavaliers should be better suited to handle Mitchell’s absence at home than the Clippers are to handle the potential absences of Leonard and George. — Snellings

New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Records (vs. distribution)
Pelicans: 26-24 (24-26-0)
Dollars: 32-17 (26-20-3)

row: Bucks (-10)
BPI Projection: Dollars: (120-114.1)
Money line: Pelicans (+360), Bucks (-480)
BPI Expected Winner: Dollars (70.3%)
Total: 233.5 points BPI Projected Total: 229.8 points

Injury Report:
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (SUSPENDED – Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Hamstring); EJ Liddell, (OUT – knee)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – knee); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD – knee); Bobby Portis, (OUT – knee); Serge Ibaka, (COMMITTED – Personal)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are excluded, but assume GTD players will play

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points. Antetokounmpo has the potential to average 35 PPG when healthy. He had a few poor performances when trying to play with a sore knee, but in his last two games he has returned to form, scoring 33 and 41 points, respectively. I expect more of the same on Sunday against the Pelicans. — Snellings

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *