The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to gambling on the Big Game, we’ve got you covered in terms of trends.
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into Super Bowl betting, looking at different angles and trends that have historically been profitable.
After reviewing the data, here are the top 10 general trends that caught our eye. Hopefully these nuggets will help you make informed bets, but more importantly, they’ll make watching the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs a little more exciting.
So what are we waiting for? Let’s get into the trends!
Did Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts have a better performance in Super Bowl LVII?
Debate whether QB Patrick Mahomes or QB Jalen Hurts had a better Super Bowl performance.
1. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 68% of the time
That’s a staggering number that jumps off the page. However, while the Los Angeles Rams scored first and won last year, it should be mentioned that the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers scored first and both lost. Despite these two deviations, this is a winning trend. From 2011-19, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game won. Additionally, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first win.
The only team from 2011-19 not to score first and win? The New England Patriots in 2017 (2016 season), who famously were outscored 28-3 in the third quarter, but still managed to get the W.
On a side note, live betting has become a fun way to bet on games. This might be the way to go if you like this trend.
2. Betting on the Super Bowl winner more often leads directly to coverage against the spread (ATS)
Teams that win the Super Bowl are 47-7-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 87% clip. It should be noted that the Rams did not cover a 4.5 point margin against the Cincinnati Bengals last year despite winning the game.
This may sound obvious, but in the world of gambling, any bet that reaches over 60% is stellar. But 80%? This is unheard of, so if you are confident in who will win the game, bet on him too to cover it!
3. Nick Siriani’s tendencies
With Nick Siriani making his Super Bowl coaching debut, we took a deep dive into his ATS and SU performance as a head coach. Here’s what we found:
- Siriani is 16-17-1 ATS (48.5%) and 23-11 SU (67.6%) as a head coach in regular season games
- Siriani is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 2-1 SU (66.7%) as a head coach in playoff games
- Siriani is 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) and 21-3 SU (87.5%) as a head coach as the favorite (regular season and playoffs)
- Siriani is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU as a head coach when the spread is a pick ’em, and a one-to-three point favorite
- Siriani is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 SU as a head coach against the Chiefs in his career, losing in a Week 4 game in the 2021 season
4. Andy Reid’s tendencies
Unlike Siriani, coach Andy Reid is no stranger to the Super Bowl, becoming the ninth coach to make four appearances in the big game. Here’s an in-depth look at how he’s performed in various betting situations throughout his career:
- Reed is 28-23-4 ATS (54.9%) and 25-30 SU (45.5%) as a head coach as a one- to three-point underdog (regular season and playoffs)
- Reed is 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) and 21-16 SU (56.8%) as a head coach in all career playoff games (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 9-8-1 ATS (52.9%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) as Chiefs head coach in the playoffs
- Reed is 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) and 3-7 SU (30%) as a head coach when a playoff underdog (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reed is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU as the Chiefs’ head coach when a playoff underdog
- Reid is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 1-2 SU (33.3%) as a Super Bowl head coach (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reed is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU as a head coach against the Eagles in his career
5. Since the 1999 season (2000 Super Bowl), there have been 12 instances of a coach coaching in a Super Bowl before facing a coach who wasn’t. In those 12 occasions, the coach with Super Bowl experience went 3-8-1 ATS and 7-5 SU
Experience counts, right? Not so much in the last 23 years, when considering distribution. The coach with Super Bowl experience has lost five of 12 games (41.7%) against coaches making their first big dance. More importantly, from a betting perspective, they have covered at just a 27.3% clip in that span. Super Bowl LVII will be Reid’s fourth time coaching the game and Siriani’s first.
6. The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl historically wins and covers
Keep an eye out for who will have an early lead in rushing totals when the Big Game rolls around, as teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are an astounding 39-14-3 ATS (73.6%) and 41-15 SU ( 73.2% ). However, it should be mentioned that the Bengals beat the Rams last year and lost. In the regular season, the Eagles were fifth in the league in rushing at 147.6 yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked 20th at 115.9.
It should also be mentioned that the Eagles are posting a wild 208.0 rushing yards per game average in the postseason, while the Chiefs’ average has dropped to 93.0.
7. The team that had the better points per game percentage in the regular season was in the cut
Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won the last seven Super Bowl games and are also 6-1 ATS (85.7%). The last team to win the Super Bowl while averaging a higher points per game was the 2015 Patriots (2014 season), who would have lost the game to the Seattle Seahawks had Malcolm Butler not intercepted the ball on the goal line with 20 seconds left.
This season, the Eagles allowed 20.2 PPG during the regular season, while the Chiefs allowed 21.7.
8. The NFC holds the all-time lead in Super Bowls won, but the AFC has dominated the spread in recent years
The NFC holds a 29-27 (51.8%) edge over the AFC in Super Bowl wins and is also 28-26-2 ATS (51.9%). However, over the past 10 Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 7-3 ATS (70%) and 6-4 SU (60%). NFC teams to cover in that span were the 2013 Seahawks, 2017 Eagles and 2020 Buccaneers.
9. Mahomes an underdog for the first time in his playoff career
While the Chiefs were underdogs for quite a while against the Bengals in the AFC title game, the line eventually closed, with Kansas City a two-point favorite. However, the Eagles have been solid favorites over the last few days, meaning this could actually be the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ entire career that he’s been an underdog in the postseason. Below is an overview of how Mahomes has performed in various situations throughout his career, both ATS and SU:
- Mahomes’ biggest underdog was 4.5 points on the road in a Week 2 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018; The Chiefs won 42-37
- Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%) and 6-3 SU (66.7%) as a career underdog starter, with an over in six of those games
- Mahomes has been an underdog at home just once, a 2.5-point underdog against the Bills in Week 6 this season; Kansas City didn’t cover and lost straight up (Under Shot)
- Mahomes is 25-24 ATS (51.0%) and 40-9 SU (81.6%) as a home starter with the Under hitting in 26 of those games (regular season and playoffs)
- Mahomes is 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) as a starter at home in the playoffs, with an over in six of those games
10. 24 teams have won both the coin toss and the all-time Super Bowl game. In the last eight Super Bowls, the team that won the toss lost the game
Only 43% of all-time teams have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Just another thing to keep in mind if you want to place a live bet.
The winner of the coin toss had an unfortunate eight-year streak of losing the game. Will the streak increase to nine this year?
If you’re ready to bet on the Super Bowl after reading the top trends, head over to FOX Bet now!
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