trends in the music industry | A blog about the music industry

November is one of my favorite times of the year, as an analyst anyway. Why? Because that’s when the MIDiA team pool their collective brainpower to formulate our year-end predictions. What gives our forecasts their unique angle is that they are built in an interconnected framework, taking into account the cross-industry trends that will shape the coming years. A trend in the music industry does not happen in isolation from social media trends, nor vice versa, etc. We boast solid results, with an 88% success rate in both our 2023 and 2022 forecasts, following 84% and 79% in the previous two years. The report is available to clients here. In the meantime, here’s a quick look at some of the meta (non-company) themes:

· The algorithm is no longer listening: This is our flagship prediction, and one that we believe will have a far-reaching impact on all forms of entertainment. Algorithms on large-scale platforms once catered to super users, encouraging them ever closer to their respective niches. Algorithms are now increasingly pushing users toward content that prioritizes platform monetization over user priorities. Ultimately, users feel that the algorithm is no longer listening to them. This trend will intensify in 2024 among the world’s largest consumer platforms, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and creating a window of opportunity for new, consumer-focused platforms, starting the cycle all over again.

· Creation as consumption: If the late 2010s and early 2020s were the era of the creator, the rest of the next decade will become the era of the consumer creator. The proliferation of consumer-focused tools for creators across major social platforms and beyond will herald the next phase of the consumerization of creativity. Not only will this lead to more content being created by users (thereby competing for consumption time), but creation itself will become fun, thus adding to the competition for time.

· The rise of a threat: The metaverse may seem like a bus that never arrives, but something much more tangible is already gaining momentum – a threat. This is the growing trend of social platforms becoming toxic environments where diversity of opinion is transformed into intolerance, division and hate speech. Accented by bot farms and illegal actors, enabled by failed platform moderation policies, social platforms are shifting from places to share opinions to platforms where more moderate voices no longer feel safe to speak. Threats, harassment, false “facts” and aggressive counter-comments have created the new defining framework of the online social world – the threat.

· The future will be closed complexes: Change is effected as much by reaction as by action. The rise of the threat sets the stage for what will follow: the shift from open social worlds to closed communities where groups of like-minded people can converse safely in the knowledge that they will not be abused and attacked. The early promise of “everywhere, everyone social” has proven toxic and unworkable. Expect more social platforms to increase gated community features. They will also prove to be a boon to fans. Artists and other creators will be able to talk to fans without having to worry about the barrage of negative comments from users that can currently occupy and even co-opt their open fan spaces.

· AI will continue to reshape entertainment: While the rights framework will continue to be contested and defined in 2024, AI technology will continue to accelerate, both in terms of refinement and adoption. It will find its loudest voice in the consumption of creativity, but its more subtle and pervasive impact will be its steady assimilation into creative workflows, becoming an increasingly used set of tools for creation in all forms of entertainment, by Chat GPT creating lines of code for games, through Eleven Labs generating podcast narration, to Beatoven creating soundtracks for influencer videos.

Like what you’ve seen before? Then come and engage with MIDiA’s star analysts as they go through their industry-specific predictions in our free-to-attend webinar, the algorithm is not listeningon the 11thth from January 2024. You can find the full report here with 32 predictions for music, gaming, video, social, audio and media and marketing.

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