Sunday’s best NFL bets, Saturday’s recaps
Saturday was an action-packed day at the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had horse racing in the morning and afternoon – highlighted by the Pegasus card at Gulfstream Park – and our NHL games and plenty of college and professional basketball to follow in the afternoon and evening.
The best result of the day came in Race 12 at Gulfstream when Rampart Racing and Sportsbook Manager Dwayne Colucci, John Lauro and yours truly all landed the Atone in our Team Tully’s Thoroughbred Stuff column. and he won the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at 7-2 and paid $9.60. Colucci also dealt the late Pick 4, which paid $1,774.75. My best NHL bet didn’t fare so well as I lost my Canadiens-Senators 1P Over 1.5 -150/Coyotes-Ducks 1P Over -140 replay as the first game was scoreless after the first 20 minutes (and the Senators added insult to injury by scoring 3 goals in the 2nd quarter – I hate it when that happens!) and the Ducks only led the Coyotes 1-0 after the first period. We did win our recommended third Sharks-Penguins game as it turned out to be the best game as both scored 2 goals in the opening period but lost all our games. We’re down to 6-7 overall with our best NHL 1P games, but since these parlies are plus money the way we play these, we’re still ahead by 3.74 units.
We cut our Saturday NHL losses a bit with our underdog games, going 2-2 with the Islanders beating the Golden Knights at +100 and the Panthers beating the Bruins at +145. Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting and then list our best bets for the NFC and AFC Championship Games as we head into Sunday. No NBA or NHL action as the NFL takes over (none of our NHL 1P Over teams are in action anyway). And then, as has become customary around here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday NFL column with our updates.
Summary on Saturday
NBA: Favorites/Dogs split 5-5 SU with Knicks-Nets closing pick’em, but Dogs went 6-4 ATS with Lakers (+8), capping controversial 125-121 OT loss to Celtics. The upsets came from the Rockets (+5.5 at Pistons), Wizards (+5.5 at Pelicans), Raptors (+3 at Blazers), Timberwolves (+1 at Kings) and Clippers (+1 at Hawks). Road teams went 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS. Over 6-5.
More NBA: On the season, favorites are 473-267 SU with 11 games closing picks, but the Dogs are still 376-345-19 ATS (52.1%). Home teams lead 449-302 SU and 386-348-18 ATS (52.6%). In total betting, Overs lead 383-356-12 (51.8%).
CBB: Oklahoma upset No. 2 Alabama 93-69 as a 5-point underdog at home in the SEC/Big 12 Battle. No. 4 Tennessee beat No. 10 Texas 82-71, covering as a 5.5-point home favorite. Mississippi State (+1.5) upset No. 11 TCU 81-74 in OT. Missouri (+1) beat No. 12 Iowa State 78-61.
NHL: Faves went 7-4 with upsets of the Sharks (+200 in a 6-4 win over the Penguins), the Flyers (+190 in a 4-0 win over the Jets), the Panthers (+135 in a 4-3 OT win over the Bruins) and the Islanders (+102 in 2-1 OT win vs. Golden Knights). The hosts won 9-2. Unders went 6-4-1 with a push in STL-COL (6). For the season favors 458-296 with 20 PK. Home teams 402-359 with 4 neutral site games. Over/under back to .500 at 364-364-32.
The best Sunday NFL bets
49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser): I gave this our last Sunday night and in my Monday column – also added 49ers +4.9/Chiefs +7.5 when the line flipped earlier in the week – but still my best bet for Sunday.
49ers +3 at Eagles: If you managed to grab it… and it may still become available on Sunday morning.
Bengals +7.5/over 42 (6-point teaser): Added this in VSiN NFL Best Bet column on VSiN.com on Friday for those who don’t want to see the Eagles fade or are just looking for a nightcap bet.
Here’s the replay of our weekly NFL schedule breakdown, with updates in italics:
Welcome to our regular Wednesday column, “Tuley’s Takes Today,” where we give our breakdown of every game on the NFL schedule, which this week is the two Conference Championship games, and give our best bets and strategy for the “pool game “. This week has a different feel as we had a favorite change in the AFC title game. Regular readers and those who catch my weekly Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” — where my early best NFL picks have gone 22-12 ATS (64.7%) since early November — know that gave away 2 teams , 6 point teaser for 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 and advised listeners/readers to bet ASAP due to the uncertainty of Patricks Mahomes high ankle sprain and early action coming up against the Bengals. Of course, the money kept coming on Monday and the spread flipped from Chiefs -1 to Bengals -1 and then -1.5, which is where it still was as I write this early Wednesday morning. I loved this play and those who hesitated missed it; however, as I’ll discuss further below, the value has likely flipped to the Chiefs +7.5 (and those who chimed in with us on the Bengals +7.5 now have a 14-point shot in the middle). Friday Update: The line has swung back to favor the Chiefs, offering those who missed the Bengals +7 or +7.5 the chance to get our original bet.
But let’s start with the NFC Championship Game at 3pm ET/obed PT on Sunday. Lines posted are as of early Wednesday morning unless otherwise noted. For current lines see VSiN NFL odds page.
We have two great games on Sunday. I knew right away when the lines came out that the right play was to upset both underdogs through the key numbers 3 and 7, so that’s why we picked 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 as we expect both games to be one-score games.
As for this individual game, I also like the 49ers plus points, although I was waiting for it to go to 49ers +3 in case they lose by a field goal. The line opened Eagles -1 and -1.5 at some books and was bet steadily higher to -2.5 with BetMGM going as high as -2.5 -120 before settling at -2.5 -115 as well as several other books so here’s hoping the money sticks going in as the favorite as 76% of bets and 77% of the money on DraftKings were on the Eagles -2.5 as of early Wednesday on VSiN Betting Split page (check back for current figures). Even though the Eagles have been the best team in the NFC all season — and impressively bounced back to form in their 38-7 rout of the Giants in the divisional round — I still have more faith in the 49ers for their 12-game winning streak (8 – 4 ATS), as their No. 5 offense should have more success against the Eagles’ No. 2 defense, and their No. 1 defense has a better chance of being stopped against the Eagles’ No. 3 offense. I usually lock in my best bets for the week in these Wednesday columns (which used to appear in our Point Spread Weekly digital magazine), but this is my column, and exactly how we can wait for the best number in the real world, I reserve the right to make the 49ers a +3 conditional pick.
Best bet: 49ers +8.5 in teasers, plus 49ers +3 if we can get it (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests – higher at +3 – but Eagles still 55/45 in SU pools) .
Thursday update: more books have gone to Eagles -2.5 -115 but still waiting to get 49ers +3. Friday Update: South Point was the first book to move to Eagles -3/49ers +3 (and they stick to -110 each way) at 11:43pm PT late Thursday, so hopefully more books follow the example. Saturday Update: More books moved to -2.5 -120 and 49ers +3 continued to pop up, but not for long. Same on Sunday.
I really see this game as a draw, with the Chiefs playing in their fifth straight AFC Championship game against the defending AFC champion Bengals, who have overcome their “Super Bowl loser hangover” to go 14-2 SU (13-3 ATS ) from a 0-2 start.
The big news is Mahomes’ high ankle sprain, although he is expected to play. But the fact is, his counterpart Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs, all as underdogs, over the past 13 months, so the Bengals do have their number. It was easy to take advantage of the 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 teaser on Sunday night. Now that the line has flipped to the Bengals -1.5 as of Wednesday morning, the value has also flipped to the Chiefs +7.5 in teasers for those who missed the early bet (and too juicy to miss the 14-point average for those who joined us on Bengals +7.5). While we still believe the Bengals are the right side and the more likely winner, we also think Mahomes will keep the Chiefs in the game — and even if Chad Henne is pressed into service, he looked capable again when he led off with a 98-yard TD run drive against the Jaguars before Mahomes returns to the lineup. Regardless, we’re banking on a one-score game either way.
Best bet: Bengals +7.5 in teasers for those who got it; now, Chiefs +7.5 in teasers (pool game: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests, assuming they’re listed at +1.5, though Bengals 55/45 in SU pools).
Thursday update: The line moved to pick-’em in most books on Wednesday with reports of Patrick Mahomes progressing with his injured ankle, moving him out of the “teaser zone,” while South Point moved to Chiefs -1 from early Thursday. Friday Update: More books moved to Chiefs -1 on Thursday, with Circa being the first to go back to Chiefs -1.5 from early Friday, so this gives more people a chance to have both sides of the teaser on this game. Saturday/Sunday Update: The line appears to have settled at Chiefs -1.5, so Bengals +7.5 is once again widely available. I also added Bengals +7.5/Over 42 as an alternate teaser in the NFL VSiN Best Bets column on VSiN.com.