The Oakland A’s spent most of the offseason making slight upgrades around the diamond to grab league-average players from the free agent market in an effort to field a more competitive team in 2023. How competitive they’ll be is still up for grabs. of debate , but the A’s should be better than the 102-loss team in 2022.
Part of the reason for that tempered optimism is that the A’s will have more depth options around the diamond this coming season, and on Tuesday they added to that depth in 32-year-old veteran first baseman Jesus Aguilar. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the deal is worth $3 million through the 2023 season.
Aguilar is coming off a down year in 2022 with the Marlins and Orioles, batting a combined .235 with a .281 on-base percentage and 86 OPS+ in 129 games. He also hit 16 homers and drove in 51.
A year earlier, Aguilar hit .261 with a .329 OBP with the Marlins, with 22 home runs and 91 rbi. And apparently they hope to return to those numbers from 2021.
Seth Brown was the A’s best offensive first baseman last season, finishing the year with a 117 wRC+, meaning he was 17% above league average. Christian Betancourt, who was traded to the Rays, was the A’s second-best option with a 100 wRC+, or right around league average.
Some fans have speculated that this means Brownie is on his way out via trade, but as I’ve written in the past, I think Brown is sticking around for a while to see how the trade ban affects his numbers. Last season, when he wasn’t traded, he hit like Freddie Freeman. If this trend continues, then its trade value is sure to rise.
Brown’s best defensive position is left field according to Baseball Savant, who graded him slightly below league average in right field (-4 strikeouts above average), center (-1 OAA) and leadoff (-3 OAA), but he had just better than average in left field with 1 OAA in 2022.
I think this move more or less solidifies Brown as an outfielder, especially in left, on a more regular basis.
The logical way to use Aguilar would be to include him as a shortstop against lefties, but he had reverse splits in 2022. Against lefties, pitchers, he hit just .196 with a 57 wRC+, 43% below league average. Against righties, he hit the old Chris Davis .247 and had a much better 96 wRC+, just 4% below league average.
Again, the A’s are hoping for a rebound, so in 2021 he hit .259 against lefties with a 114 wRC+ (14% above league average) and .261 against righties, 9% better than league average.
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If the A’s really want to include him, then Rule 5 draftee Ryan Noda would be the likely candidate for the other half of that mix. Noda swings lefty, and although he hasn’t made his major league debut entering his age-27 season, being in the Dodgers’ system presents some challenges to getting a shot at the Show.
In Triple-A last season, Noda hit .259 with a .395 OBP, hit at an outstanding 16% clip and struck out 28.2% of the time. He has some upside and is a very interesting player heading into spring training. The only holdback for him is a Rule 5 attachment, meaning he must be on the A’s 26-man roster the entire season or else be placed on waivers, then offered back to the Dodgers if he clears the refusals. Noda will likely end up in another organization if he doesn’t make it to Oakland.
The A’s might be fine with that outcome, given that their number one prospect, 21-year-old Tyler Soderstrom, finished the 2022 campaign at Triple-A Las Vegas and could be ready for his big league debut somewhere in the second half. Then again, the A’s reportedly tried to pry Noda from the Dodgers in several different trades over the years, and now they finally got him.
My best guess at A’s thinking is this: Noda is talented, but not a sure bet. If he hits well and makes the team, great! If he struggles during spring training, then Aguilar is there to take over first base duties fairly regularly until Soderstrom is deemed ready sometime in the second half of the season.
The key to this whole thing is having someone at first base until the best prospect is ready, and bringing in a first baseman other than Noda or Dermis Garcia signals that they would also like to keep Brown in the outfield , if they can help.
New signings Jace Peterson and Aledmys Díaz have also played first base in recent seasons, but are better suited at third base and second base, respectively. The A’s offseason is a house of cards made up of platooners, utility players and league average bats, and bringing in Aguilar appears to be one way to ensure that Seth Brown stays in the outfield where he can offer a little more.
The downside here is that fewer at-bats may be available initially for Dermis Garcia and Jordan Díaz while this situation plays out. Garcia is a candidate to start in the minors to work on his strikeout rate, which was 44% in his rookie campaign, but he could also work his way into a DH role if he can keep those strikeouts down. He posts videos of himself working on his swing on Instagram and teases a less pronounced leg kick. It will be interesting to see how this looks on a live background in a few weeks.
Diaz seemed to add to his leg kick which could add a lot of power to his approach. He already has the bat-to-ball skills the A’s want, but adding power would be a nice bonus. The reason he could be headed to Triple-A early in the season is because he’s only played in 26 games in Vegas and also doesn’t have a defensive position. A little more time in Triple-A would allow him to learn which position the A’s see him occupying.
Aguilar’s fitness isn’t obvious, but his stay in the green and gold could also be short if he doesn’t recover. And there is depth around the diamond, there are plenty of talented bats emerging in the first base mix.