Updated 9:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, 2025 September 3
The National Hurricane Center increased the likelihood that the tropical tropical disorders of the Eastern tropical disorders would develop into tropical depression or tropical storm Gabrielle. Next week, they increased the likelihood of expansion in the high category.
Different computer forecasts are everywhere. Some models analyze atmospheric conditions against disturbances as reasonably favorably promoting development. Others predict that development will be slow due to dust and dry air and hostile upper level wind from the upper level of low pressure system. The question is also how strong blocking will be high north.
The prediction rule is that the forecasts of systems that are unorganized, just developing or slowly movement are always undergoing big mistakes and are likely to change. Each of these adjectives is suitable for this disorder, so we have to be open to a variety of opportunities so far.
This picture shows an overview of the tropical Atlantic Basin.
If the disorder finds an atmospheric pocket that allows you to turn and strengthen the tropical storm Gabrielle, the consensus of various computer forecasts is that the system is before reaching the islands. Of course, this is not guaranteed, but it is logical.
If the system remains weaker longer, it is more likely to be watched closer to the Northeast Caribbean. This will open up many opportunities. It seems that the atmospheric model near the Caribbean will be more favorable for development next week. However, there are many moving parts.
During the Fox Weather, we create an exclusive tropical threat analysis based on the output of European, US GFS and Google Deepmind AI models, which shows a reasonable system road range and the ability to develop at least tropical depression.
Note that the likelihood of any exceptional result is low. Light blue indicates 10%. Also pay attention to two hands that stick to the north. This shows where the models say that the system will intensify early and quickly turn north.
Analysis of tropical threat.
A possible turn to the north will only occur if it is forecasted that the great immersion of the jet flow will be attracting the system in the eastern part of the US next week. If it becomes strong enough, Turn North is more likely to happen. On the other hand, if the disturbances are weak for too long, it is more likely to be monitored to the West. But it’s all in more than a week – too far to do something more than you guess.
Everything is slow, so there is nothing to do, just wait and watch. According to the current schedule, the system will not even be near the islands to seven or eight days from now on. Obviously, a lot can happen.
Interestingly, there is nothing in the Atlantic ocean, though obviously we can expect more disturbances this month from Africa.
Hurricane Lorena is projected to weaken cool water near Baja California sur. The current forecast is that it will become a descent around Thursday in the north north of Cabo San Lucas as a tropical storm. Everyone should be well informed there.
Two active hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean.
Hurricane Kiko still goes to the West in the common direction of Hawaii. The strong consensus is that Kiko will dramatically weaken until it reaches the islands early in the middle of the water. However, it is still possible to notice an influx of moisture, especially on the Great Island. Everyone should be informed of Kiko’s progress.
Original source of article: Bryan Norcoss: Cannot be ruled out in the Caribbean Islands next week