Japan’s next finance minister may be worried about the yen

Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki

The potential appointment of Satsuki Katayama as Japan’s next finance minister could prompt markets to rethink whether the yen will be too low, but could also help the country’s new leader find new ways to fund bold economic stimulus plans.

Japan’s other likely prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has finalized a plan to appoint Katayama as finance minister, local media reported on Tuesday, making her the first woman to hold the role. The report briefly lifted the dollar to around ¥150.50 before recovering some losses.

In an interview with Reuters in March, Katayama, a 66-year-old veteran upper house lawmaker and former finance minister bureaucrat, said Japan’s economic fundamentals suggested the yen’s true value was closer to 120-130 to the dollar.

The comments came as the yen fell to a multi-decade low of $150 as markets expected the Bank of Japan to ease monetary tightening. The yen is currently around 151 to the dollar.

“Given her previous comments, Katayama appears to be advocating for a reversal of the weak yen. Markets may have thought this was similar to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach,” said Akira Moroga, chief market strategist at Aozora Bank.

Katayama declined to comment on Tuesday.

Takaichi is expected to be elected as Japan’s first female prime minister on Tuesday, marking a symbolic breaking of the glass ceiling in a country where men still hold most of the power.

RESPONSIBLE, DETERMINED, MINISTERIAL RESPONSE

A former finance ministry bureaucrat with a deep understanding of fiscal matters, Katayama has a knack for currency diplomacy and is friends with former and current ministry heads overseeing exchange rate policy.

She is known for being outspoken and making sharp decisions, which contrasts with current Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, who rarely goes off script and keeps a low profile.

In an interview in March, Katayama said the administration of US President Donald Trump does not want too much weakness in the yen against the dollar.

Indeed, Bessent said last week that the yen would reach its level if the central bank follows “appropriate monetary policy” in its latest move to slow the BOJ’s pace of rate hikes.

Katayama’s appointment would come at a time when the cost of living has risen, partly blamed on higher import prices driven by a weak yen. These factors hurt households and the ruling party’s approval ratings.

As a former bureaucrat, Katayama is well versed in the internal budgeting process of the finance ministry.

While her experience at the finance ministry may lead her to call for fiscal discipline, some analysts say she could use her experience to help Takaichi find ways to finance his bold spending plans.

“I’m not sure if Katayama is a supporter of expansionary fiscal policy, but her views are deeply in line with Takaichi’s,” said Hiroyuki Machida, director of FX and commodities sales at ANZ.

“She will know how to find sources of revenue if Takaichi wants to increase fiscal spending,” he said. “Personally, I think this appointment will accelerate Takaichi’s trade.”

Takaichi’s challenge would be to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy without causing an unwanted slide in the yen. It is not known whether it will lean towards the BOJ’s plan to gradually raise interest rates from the current level to 0.5%.

In an interview in March, Katayama said monetary policy or currency intervention could stem the yen’s slide, and he called for action to spur substantive growth.

Markets will focus on Katayama’s views on whether the BOJ should continue to raise interest rates at still low levels, which could increase Japan’s debt servicing costs but help contain the yen’s sharp fall.

“Katayama is a former finance minister, a bureaucrat and so well informed about ministry affairs,” said Eiji Douke, chief fixed income strategist at SBI Securities. “It is probably neutral on fiscal and monetary policy.”

(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki; Additional reporting by Yoshifumi Takemoto; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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