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Illustration of an asteroid near the moon. | Credit: Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library via Getty Images
“Asteroid 2024
Although now too far to watch off the ground, James Webb’s Space Telescope (JWST) appeared briefly in May. Using data from the telescope’s nearest infrared chamber, a team led by Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, revised forecasts in 2024. According to NASA’s update, this review of the trajectory eliminated the likelihood of the lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%.
“When the data arises, it is normal for the likelihood of the development to develop,” the report states. Even if the collision occurs, “it will not change the moon’s orbit”.
Astronomas Pawan Kumar, a former researcher of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengalu, agrees that the moon is safe, noting that the collision with the moon will “be a concern” because any lunar garbage blown up from space “blows up in the Earth’s atmosphere if it gets closer to space”.
It is estimated that the first time was found on December 27 last year, in general, is about 174-220 feet long (53 to 67 meters) or about 10 -storey building size. The asteroid quickly grabbed the headlines that he had more than 1% chance of hitting the ground – the highest captured for any large asteroid. Further observations in January and February. Increased from 1.2% to 3.1% of the apex.
The yellow dots show possible 2024. Asteroid locations in 2032. December 22 As new data is collected from April to June, its road uncertainty decreases. The Earth is at the center of the white circle, which marks the orbit of the moon. | Credit: NASA/JPL Relative Earth Object Study Center
The asteroid trajectory at the time indicates that it can cause explosion damage in a wide potential impact zone covering eastern Pacific, Northern South America, Africa and South Asia. If it was in the Earth’s atmosphere over the ocean, NASA estimates that a significant tsunami would probably be done, but the air punishment over the populated city may crash windows and cause minor structural damage.
However, the risk of exposure has decreased significantly when additional orbit data occurred. By 19 February The probability decreased to 1.5%and the next day to 0.3%. February 24th NASA has announced an official in the All Clear Social Media, announcing that the likelihood of exposure has decreased to 0.004% and that Asteroid is expected to It is expected to pass the ground safely. ‘
Further analysis has since allowed scientists to reject any risk to the land not only in 2032, but also from all future close methods. Data from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested that space rock had arisen on the central main belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually shifted to almost earth orbit.
Illustration on the Moon. | Credit: Mark Garlic/Science Photos Library via Getty Images
Since mid -April, the asteroid has been too far and too weak to see from the ground. 2028 He will turn again, giving scientists another opportunity to observe the asteroid and further clarify their orbit using both JWST and terrestrial telescopes. First of all, scientists will seek to gather more data on its shape and composition, which are the main factors that understand their behavior and possible effects.
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Although 2024 It was a “real exercise from end to finish” how we can respond to potentially dangerous asteroid in the future, said Kumar.
“In 2024, the YR4 is adapted to an asteroid for planets’ defense efforts,” he said. “It has everything we need to get our attention.”