Washington (AP) – The promised economic boom promised by President Donald Trump focuses on one number: $ 17 trillion.
This is the amount of new investments that Trump claims to have created with its rates, income tax reduction and aggressive CEO, financiers, Tech Titans, prime ministers, presidents and other rulers. The $ 17 trillion -worth of new factories, new technologies, more jobs, higher income and faster economic growth are believed to be $ 17 trillion.
“By eight months from Trump, we have already secured $ 17 trillion dollars,” the president said in a speech last month. “There was never any country that did nothing like it.”
However, based on statements by the website of various companies, foreign countries and the White House, this number seems exaggerated, very speculative and much higher than the true amount. The White House website contains all investment – $ 8.8 trillion, although this figure seems to be padded with some of the obligations made by Joe Biden.
The White House did not disclose mathematics after a few requests, how Trump calculated $ 17 trillion investment obligations. However, this issue goes beyond the hyperbolic speech of Trump with his belief that the brute tariff strength and the shame of companies can provide economic results – a strategy that could enter the side politically if hard conversations fail to turn more jobs and higher income.
Based on September A survey that the Associated Press-Norc Public Affairs Center survey is only 37% of the US adult supporting the economy to manage the economy. This decreased from 56% of the apex in 2020. At the beginning of the 19th century, during the first term of Trump, the memory he relied on when he was collecting voters in last year’s election.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, said Trump’s announced society is a “meaningful increase,” but one that makes up hundreds of billion dollars rather than a trillion. Even then, it arises with long -term costs, as countries may be less likely to invest with the US after threatening to do so.
“This is a national security mistake because you turn allies into certain colonies – you are forced to get things that they do not see as in a completely interest,” Poseen said. “Government twisted weapons to twist your business hands, you won’t get the payment you want.”
A short foreign banking for promises
Trump’s administration bets that rates are an effective means of investing in other countries and multinational companies in the US – a large stick that other administration failed. The goal of Trump’s voters is that it will play a role in direct management of foreign investment commitments in foreign countries – and that the distribution of that money will revive what the flag’s labor market was.
“The difference between hypothetical investment and termination of the land in new factories and facilities is good leadership and reliable policy,” said White House spokesman Kušas desai.
The White House said Japan would invest $ 1 trillion, mainly at Trump’s order. The European Union will commit to $ 600 billion. The United Arab Emirates undertook to reach $ 1.4 trillion in 10 years. Qatar promised $ 1.2 trillion. Saudi Arabia plans to increase $ 600 billion, India $ 500 billion and South Korea $ 450 billion.
The challenge is that the exact conditions of those investments must be fully codified and released to the public, and some numbers are disputed, potentially unclear mathematics or in Qatar more than five times the total domestic product of the country. The White House says Qatar is good for money because it produces oil.
South Korea already has doubts about its commitment to invest, which is $ 100 billion smaller than what the White House claims, after immigration agents held a Hyundai factory under construction in Georgia and arrested Korean citizens. There is also an concern that an investment that has a big better way to change currencies with the US could be harmed by the South Korean economy.
“Based on what I have seen, these obligations are worth as much as the paper on which they are not written,” said Jared Bernstein, who was chairman of the Biden White House Economic Advisory Council.
According to the European Union documents, the $ 600 billion dollars made by European companies is based on those companies that “expressed interest” and expressed their “intentions” to do so in 2029, not an open concession.
Still too early to see any impact on investment in the overall economy
So far, a business investment impetus has not yet been noticeable compared to the percentage of the US gross domestic product. As part of the whole economy, business investment was constantly jumping about 14%during the first six months of Trump’s presidency, as did before pandemic.
However, economists also note that Trump is a double calculation and relying on investments originally announced during the biden administration or investment, which are likely to be due to artificial intelligence accumulation.
For example, the White House is a $ 16 billion investment in Computer Chipmaker Global Foundries. However, this amount was announced at the Biden Administration more than $ 13 billion and was based on $ 1.6 billion in a $ 2022 Chips and Science Act, as well as other state and federal incentives.
Similarly, the White House values the $ 200 billion in investing in Chipmaker Micron, but at least $ 120 billion was announced during the Biden era.
“Rates played a big role”
In turn, the White House officials credited the short rates, as are those for October 1. Kitchen cabinets, large trucks and pharmaceutical drugs – forced to invest companies in the US, saying that additional import taxes are being taken if countries and companies are unable to fulfill their promises that promised cash will come into the economy.
Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer on Tuesday, confirmed this view after his pharmaceutical medicine company received a three -year grace period and announced $ 70 billion in US $ investment in the US USA in the US
“The president was completely right,” Bourla said. “Rates are the most powerful means of motivating behavior.”
“The rates played a big role,” the Trump added.
