After their landslide, the victory last summer fell a long way.
In the will, what a serious challenge of the reform, they organized the intention of voting throughout February. Both main parties have not been held for more than 100 years.
Could the reform win other elections?
By law, other general elections must be held until the latest by 2029. August 21 The road ahead is long and everything can change.
Will Leaborists find their step? Will Conservatives come back from the worst defeat in their history? Will the Reform acceleration last for five years, and if so, is Nigel Farage win enough places to become another prime minister?
How did we get data?
To answer these questions, Telegraph consisted of surveys from many surveys approved by the British Survey Council.
These are transparent, reliable and respected bodies such as Yugov, Openium and Redfield and Wilton.
Each survey, published since 2024. In July, the result was evaluated how well that Pollster performed the last time when the scores were taken from the UK electoral vault and sample size. The trend line shown is the result of local regression.
As support for parties breaks down
The days after the last election, Yugov selected more than 35,000 voters to see how support was in various bases.
On the election day, the right -wing women proved more prone than men in the rebel reform on the Tori. Recent surveys show that women voters were increasingly won.
There are also blurred reference lines: support for reform has grown in all demographic groups, but the increase in young people is the strongest.
Support for conservatives remains strong for retirees, but Farage’s adhesion is also tightened in this age group. Meanwhile, the leabs are moving with all generations.
We know exactly how many votes they were given to national and regional parties in all corners of the UK.
The Labor’s part has fallen across the country. Recent surveys show reform leading in Midland and south outside London.
Plaid Cymru and SNP also received some success through the decline in the ruling party in Wales and Scotland.
How well Starmer acts like a PM?
The honeymoon of the Prime Minister was very short -lived. In July last year, he was neutral in the eyes of society – as many people said he was favored by it as unfavorable – he made it one of the most popular party leaders at the time.
But it soon changed. Until October, he was more negative than Nigel Farage, a loud divorce.
How many places could reform to win in the election?
The first shift system has long caused imbalance between the national voting part and the number of seats in Commons. 2024. The most distorted elections in history were the need to compare part of the votes and win places.
Predicting the winner of the 650 Election District race is not an easy deed. In recent years, survey participants have begun to perform so-called MRPs, “multilevel regression and after stratification”.
They combine mega-poll, usually with a size of 10,000 sample, with a variety of characteristic data on locals, gender and age to education level and voting history.
Are surveys accurate?
Each survey contains uncertainty. While all surveyors are trying to interrogate the representative sample and evaluate the results to reflect the makeup of the wider country, the error margin is inevitable.
In practice, the true position of a particular survey is likely to reach 2 points from the number cited.
Each surveyor also applies an adapted approach to determining the basic voting intentions. The exact wording of the questions may vary, as is the case with “unknown” answers.
Studies have shown that a summary “survey survey” helps to mitigate the possible bias that arises from individual surveys.