00:00 Speaker a
I wonder what has divorced you, and then these are the effects of the Federal Reserve?
00:09 Speaker b
Yes, Julie, I mean, I clearly think that September. The reduced rate is Slam Dunk, but you are looking at the report of this morning and I’m not sure that this is the case because the main CPI that focuses on the Fed, the clock than expected, 3.1%compared to 3%. Remember that this does not include volatile food and energy prices. This increased from 2.9% in June. And what the Fed is actually looking for is the effect of tariffs. And when I looked at this message, you see a little, right when you look at furniture, um, maybe shoes, not so much clothes, which is surprising me. So when you look at this report, it is not extremely felt, but the services seemed to me sticky and the Fed was worried. It seemed like it was approaching the queue, it looked good. So this message seems to me a bit sticky. I don’t think that was enough to make the decision at the moment. Before September We will get more data, but we come back to what I have said before in our ether, and I will say that again, that is that the Fed is a bit of the dilemma at this time. They look at both sides of their power of attorney, which look sticky. They look at the side of the work of their mandate, which looks weaker. I think the decisive Fed factor will be the September report we receive, or I should say that the August Job Report, which will appear on September 5th. Because if it is weaker, then I think it can be the cause of the Fed connection. But if we see a resonance from what we have seen this summer, given that inflation looks sticky at the moment, I still see most of the committee and as if that waiting and see the regime.
03:28 Speaker a
Well, and I’m going to throw another wrench into it. What if you see an echo, but a lesser review of July, right? Because yes, then you just think the August number will also be reviewed below. So only
04:11 Speaker b
That’s right, it also talks about how data is collected, right? We know that there is a three -month course where BLS goes out to companies and may not respond until the third month, so we see such large data views. And you think you know, we’ve seen it all year long. So we’ll probably see another review.
04:52 Speaker a
Yes. I mean, could we be negative?
05:00 Speaker b
Correctly. As Claudia Sam, UH, you know, in the last half hour, Fed’s work is never easy, right? So, but perhaps especially not now. Hm, Jen, I also want to talk to you about this new member of the Bureau of Work Statistics Bureau, EJ Antony, who is in the Conservative Heritage Foundation. Economists do not seem exciting about this choice and among economists there is such a fear that when it comes to data, the scale will be like a guerrilla thumb.
06:07 Speaker c
Well, remember, Julie, as I said, I watched whether the candidate is the one who is going to change the process, how data is collected and how things are done compared to just something new, as we saw with Mintyre. And with this new candidate, Antonia, you know, he has long been a BLS critic and how the BLS collects data, and he said there are better ways to collect data and process and disseminate them, and it will be another BLS commissioner. So now that he is a candidate, you know, we will have to see what he is going to do. It must now be confirmed by the Senate. So the Senate hurts him with questions. I am sure that Democrats are more than Republicans about what he intends to do, how he could change the data collection process. Of course, there are improvements that can be done, but the question is whether, you know, whether it can be tilted so that there are guerrillas to make the numbers look better, which has taken care of investors. And questions about how he could handle a message that may not like the president.
08:23 Speaker a
Correctly. Good all questions. Romson, I know you have been looking at some of UM Antony’s previous comments. Um, we talked a little at the last hour that he was a critic, but it is unclear how he will correct it, right? Or how it will change it.
09:09 Speaker d
Correctly. I mean, it is clear that he is an ally of Trump. Hm, you don’t have to be genius to work it. He called the BLS data in May. He said in a tweet and wrote, written, you know, it is like receiving a random number generator. It is called CPI according to Biden Fony Baloney. So, you know, he clearly agrees with President Trump for many things. Hm, and that is what he may have that he may need the Senate approval and his critics are worried that he will not be sufficiently neutral. And keep in mind that non -economic wages are often reviewed. And indeed, as 2024 approached. November For the elections, some economists and statistics will tell you that Trump’s opponents have been more hurt than they have hurt President Trump. UH, so he is, yes, it is really complicated. I am definitely going to bake democrats, but I know, do not reject any republicans, as well as some difficult questions for him. Don’t forget the start, the one he will be responsible is only 2,000. It’s not much. And you know that we know, President Trump is trying to reduce jobs in big agencies. So it will be a difficult job that has taken the job, but it will be enlarged because it is also regarded as a big ally of Trump.
11:41 Speaker a
Correctly. And economists demanded more resources in that agency, not less.