President Donald Trump 2024 The victory over the former vice president Kamala Harris was prompted by the “voter coalition, which was more racial and more ethnically diverse than 2020.
The Pew Analysis, which combines survey data from its own internal voter group with voter record information, contributes to a clearer image of 2024 voters.
He determines that about three -quarters of the voters in the US made the same decision in 2024 that they did so in 2020. However, a quarter chose a different choice-to be able to return the short to the White House.
The report found that the Trump occupied 85% of its 2020. Voters, while Harris retained the smaller 79% of former President Joe Biden’s supporters. Compared to 2020, Trump won a larger share of Spanish voters (48%compared to 36%), Asian voters (40%, from 30%) and black voters (15%compared to 8%).
“These shifts were mainly due to the differences that caused voters to appear in the 2020 and 2024 elections,” concludes the authors of the Pew report. “As in the past, the relatively small part of the voters changed which party candidate they supported.”
Fifteen percent of 2020 Biden supporters and 11% out of 2020 Trump’s supporters did not vote four years later, and their analysis was determined. Trump also won about 5% 2020. Biden supporters, while Harris took about 3% of voters who supported a short in the previous election.
And while most suitable voters who 2020 Did not release the vote, last year stayed at home again, those who decided to vote in 2024. Adding people who were too young to vote in the previous election are slightly narrower.
The Pew analysis is based on the results of a survey conducted immediately after the November presidential election. Like all surveys, its results offer voters’ behavior, not an attempt to accurately determine accuracy. That is why different after election analysis may vary from some conclusions about the voters, even when they come closer to consensus.
In the new analysis, as a report of last month last month, the catalyst of a democratically coordinated data firm includes new data sources: information from commercial voter files that summarize official state activity records. The Pew analysis corresponds to voter data with answers to their survey – and because its surveys are conducted using a group of respondents, which over time respond to various surveys, researchers can often track specific models of individuals.
People in New York vote in the celestial church in 2024. November 5 On election day. – David Dee Delgado/AFP/Getty Images
The Catholic report also found that voters who played a key role in Trump’s victory. Because non -presidential elections usually see less activity, it can also have potential as the parties begin to prepare for the upcoming guts.
“There is undoubtedly some evidence that this change in Democrats, who is better at better among more consistent voters, may have some effect on downstream,” said Hannah Hartig, senior Pew Research Senior Senior Senior Researcher – though she noted that the long way is still going to the next election.
A few more from the Pew report:
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Trump also improved the number of male voterswhich is 2024. Divided a short of 12 points margins, with a close division of candidates in 2020. There was a particularly sharp movement among men under 50 men-which, in the meantime, were approximately evenly divorced last year, which marked more than 10 points for voters rather than Biden’s election and Exit elections Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-Post-The-the-The-the-The-the-The-the-The-the-The-the-out-Election Deating Deating and Post-Election Deating Deating and Post-Post-Eelocentienence. Gender lines.
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Education remains the main line of guilt in American politics; College graduates who voted in 2024 The gap between the Baltic and Spanish voters remained and black voters did not significantly divide the education. The Catholic report identified similar education trends, but Latino’s voters’ gap was slightly smaller, and the output survey and Votacast showed that the wishes of the college graduates remained more stable.
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Naturalized US citizens made up about 9% of last year votersby pew. And 2024. They were carefully divided forward – 51% supported Harris and 47% supported short. In contrast, 2020 This group has severely interrupted the biden.
The Pew research design also allowed them to contact non -envelopes: adults who had the right to vote, but were not part of the 64%that actually appeared. In the past, this group usually leaned over democracy: they asked what they would have wanted if they had voted in 2020. The non -control biden preferred a short 11 -point margin. However, in 2024. The impatience was carefully broken down: 44% preferred to Trump and 40% Harris.
“If something magic had happened somehow and everyone who could vote would actually turn out, not only would it not have helped Democrats and Harris, but it could slightly increase Trump’s margin,” said Scott Keeter, Senior Pew Survey Advisor.
The Pew Research Center interviewed 8,942 US adults in 2024. November, using the National Representative American Trends Commission, including 7,100 voters who could be coordinated with voters. The results between all approved voters’ sample errors are +/- 1.5 percentage points. More information about the survey methodology can be found here.
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