A renewed push by the Trump administration to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine is rattling European governments who fear Washington is setting the stage for an ultimatum to Kiev on Moscow’s terms.
The spate of diplomatic pledges has left Ukrainian and European diplomats alarmed that President Trump and his team have accepted Russia’s rationale for the war, which Vladimir Putin launched in 2022 to conquer Ukraine and destroy its democratic government, precipitating Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
It’s the latest see-saw move in Trump’s Ukraine policy since taking office. The president has repeatedly stoked anger and frustration with Ukraine over its insistence on defending itself, only to reverse course days or weeks later, temporarily embracing European partnerships, the NATO alliance and Kiev’s prospects for victory.
The administration appeared to be settling on a long-term course this week, releasing a National Security Strategy document Friday saying Europe has “unrealistic expectations” for the outcome of the war and suggesting it will work to cultivate political “resistance” to Europe’s “current trajectory.”
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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in perception and practice, should not be seen as an expanding alliance, the document said, a nod to a long-standing Russian argument justifying its military posture on the continent.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s current approach by a 2-to-1 margin — which would force Ukraine to give up its sovereign territory, including land that Russia has failed to secure on the battlefield despite suffering more than a million casualties. A recent Gallup poll found that Republicans disapprove of Trump’s policy on Ukraine more than any other issue.
However, the president’s advisers appear to be leaning toward a plan that would force Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for non-binding commitments to secure what remains of the country in the future.
Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who negotiated the Abraham Accords between Middle Eastern countries during Trump’s first term, are leading the current effort, shuttling between Moscow and Florida, where they have hosted Ukrainian diplomats, to craft a peace plan. The current framework is based on a 28-point document drafted by the Americans in consultation with the Russians.
A phone conversation between Witkoff and his Russian counterpart, the transcript of which was leaked last month, revealed that Witkoff was offering Moscow advice on how to curry favor with Trump. Russian officials also expressed confidence to local media that Trump’s team understood their demands.
“There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the territory issue without clarity on security guarantees,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a call between European leaders this week, according to a transcript obtained by Der Spiegel.
“They are playing games,” Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said of the Americans on the same call, “both with you and with us.”
In Ukraine, leading analysts questioned whether a peace plan that cedes territory would even be supported by soldiers and generals on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted to Trump that the country’s territorial integrity, as well as future security guarantees, must be the cornerstones of a viable peace deal.
But Trump could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to fight back if he eventually loses patience, experts said.
“The US continues to provide intelligence assistance, which is important, and so far they have been willing to sell weapons to European countries to transfer to NATO,” said Brian Taylor, director of Syracuse University’s Moynihan Institute for Global Affairs.
The United States has already halted direct aid to Ukraine’s war effort, agreeing instead to a NATO arrangement that sells weapons and equipment to Europe that are in turn supplied to Kiev.
“If the U.S. stops even doing that — and it would be a radical policy change if the U.S. doesn’t even want to sell weapons to European countries — then Europe will have to continue on the path it’s already on, which is to build up its own defense production capacity,” Taylor said.
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Macron, Merz and other European allies, including British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and the King of England, have implored the president to remain steadfast in his support for Ukraine — and to increase pressure on Moscow that they insist could eventually change Putin’s calculus over time.
European leaders are debating whether to hand over some of the $220 billion in Russian assets frozen in European banks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to Kiev as aid or to keep the funds as a point of future negotiations.
“If the Trump administration and the Europeans are willing to do this, there is real pressure that can be put on the Russian military and economy that is under increasing strain,” said Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Russia’s economic growth has been hit hard by lower energy prices and Russia’s growing defense burden. And the Russian military is taking casualties that the Russian people will not be able to ignore forever.”
Speaking to reporters this week, Trump said about 7,000 Russian soldiers die on the battlefield every week — a staggering number in modern warfare. Comparatively, over eight years of the US war in Iraq, fewer than 4,500 US soldiers have died.
“Such pressure will have a decisive impact only if the Trump administration stops giving Putin hope that Russia can get a favorable deal in exchange for deals that benefit American business,” Balzer added. “The West needs to attack Russia’s resolve and convince Putin that he cannot achieve his goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes that prospect unlikely.”
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.