The Sydney terror attack may have been carried out by a foreign terrorist cell backed by Iran, Israeli authorities believe.
Officials cited Iran as the main suspect and said possible links to groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba were also being investigated, according to Israeli media reports.
Australian officials have not publicly confirmed any foreign involvement in the atrocity.
At least 12 people were killed in the country’s worst shooting in decades, which targeted a Jewish gathering to celebrate Hanukkah, the festival of lights.
Intelligence sources said the attack on the Bondi Beach holiday appeared to be sophisticated and well-planned and bore the hallmarks of Unit 910, Hezbollah’s feared foreign operations arm.
An Iranian link to the attack would follow a pattern of terror plots and attacks in Australia in recent years.
Israel’s Mossad intelligence service revealed in October that it had foiled dozens of terrorist attacks worldwide on Jewish and Israeli targets since October 7, 2023, in countries including Greece, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Australia.
Naveed Akram. one of the alleged shooters
In August, Australia ordered Iran’s ambassador to leave the country after it alleged Tehran directed attacks on Jewish targets in Sydney and Melbourne, an arson attack on a Sydney cafe in October 2024 and another on a Melbourne synagogue in December.
Mike Burgess, head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (Asio), said at the time that his teams had discovered links “between the alleged crimes and commanders in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC”.
The intelligence services also said they found evidence Iran may be behind other anti-Semitic incidents in Australia, including attacks on Jewish schools, homes, vehicles and synagogues since the October 7 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas and the subsequent war in Gaza.
A member of the Jewish community reacts with disbelief and horror as he walks with police to the scene of Sunday’s mass shooting – David Gray/AFP via Getty Images
Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said it was “too early to draw conclusions”, but added: “Given the short history of Iranian activity and 910 in Australia, they are certainly suspects and high on the priority list.”
“Australia has long been known to be a hub for Hezbollah and Iran’s sleeper cells, so it could even be a joint operation between Hezbollah and the Quds Force,” Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence expert on Hezbollah, told The Telegraph.
“But this will mean that it will be very difficult to blame them for this incident because Iran will want to cover it up as an anti-Semitic incident. If the investigation incriminates Iran or Hezbollah, Israel will respond, which will also complicate things much more.”
Mr Solomon said the attackers were able to bypass local security by gathering detailed information about the target and carefully planning how to attack.
Mossad thwarted Iran-funded attacks in Brazil
Before this morning’s attack, the Australian government’s national security website listed the threat from Hezbollah on Australian soil as “probable”, writing that “Australian interests are likely to be affected by future attacks”.
In November 2023, just weeks after the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Mossad released a statement saying they had foiled a Hezbollah plot “directed and financed by the Iranian regime” targeting Israeli and Jewish targets in Brazil.
“Given the context of the war in Gaza against the terrorist organization Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian regime continue to operate around the world to attack Israeli, Jewish and Western targets,” the statement warned at the time.
Mr Citrinowicz, who previously headed the Iranian branch of Israel’s defense intelligence service, added: “It may also be employing proxies, criminals or those from the local community, which is Iran’s modus operandi. But Iran’s involvement targeting Jewish facilities in Sydney and Melbourne really shows that.
“We can’t rule out the Sunnis though. We know Al-Qaeda and IS have also been active in Australia. This is not going to be an easy investigation if it’s Iran or Hezbollah because they will cover their tracks very well.”
Police cordon off the area around the scene of the shooting, described by analysts as “extremely well organized by a coordinated group” – George Chan/Getty Images
He said Sunday’s attack appeared sophisticated and well-planned, as opposed to an opportunistic assassination. “It’s not something you do ‘now and then’ and it looks like they were very capable of using their weapons. It seems very organized.”
An Israeli intelligence source, who asked not to be named, told The Telegraph that officials were keeping an open mind, but the operation appeared to have the hallmarks of a state-sponsored event.
“It was extremely well organized by a coordinated group and well ahead of time, and the amount of ammunition and long-range weapons indicates all that,” the source said.
Mossad said in October that it had identified senior IRGC-Quds Force commander General Ammar as the mastermind behind a transnational network responsible for anti-Semitic attacks in several Western countries, including Australia.
The Mossad claimed the network had stepped up its activities following the October 7 Hamas terror attack, targeting Jewish and Israeli sites around the world.
Try full access to The Telegraph for free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus helpful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.