Two NATO nations’ intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with destructive clouds of shrapnel in orbit, with the aim of curbing Western space superiority that has aided Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called “area effect” weapon would attempt to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbital systems.
Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China, which rely on thousands of satellites in orbit for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could dissuade Moscow from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said.
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, which leads the Colorado-based nonprofit’s annual study on anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they did something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian military’s space division, Brig. General Christopher Horner said such Russian activity could not be ruled out in light of previous US allegations that Russia was also pursuing a space-based nuclear weapon.
“I can’t say I’ve been informed about this kind of system. But it’s not implausible,” he said. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they are willing to develop that and want to go for it, well, I wouldn’t find it shocking that something less than that, but just as damaging, is in their development pipeline.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP messages seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to stop the orbital deployment of weapons, and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying space-based nuclear weapons.
The weapon would have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were released to the AP on the condition that the services involved would not be identified and the news organization would not be able to independently verify the conclusions of the findings.
The U.S. Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. The French military’s space command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings, but said: “We can inform you that Russia, in recent years, has multiplied irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space.”
Russia views Starlink in particular as a serious threat, the results indicate. The thousands of low-orbit satellites were critical to Ukraine’s survival against Russia’s full-scale invasion, now in its fourth year.
The Starlink high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles, as well as by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had launched a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, which is capable of hitting targets in low orbit.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon under development would target multiple Starlinks simultaneously, with pellets possibly released by formations of yet-to-be-launched small satellites, intelligence findings say.
Canada’s Horner said it was hard to see how the pellet clouds could be gathered to hit just Starlink, and that debris from such an attack could get out of control in a hurry.
“He was blowing up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing that would “cover an entire orbital regime and eliminate every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that’s in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly disturbing.”
The system is only possible experimentally
The findings seen by the AP did not say when Russia might be able to deploy such a system, nor did it detail whether it had been tested or how far along the research is believed to be.
The system is in active development, and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related information that the AP has not seen. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.
Such Russian research could be purely experimental, Samson said.
“I wouldn’t put it past some scientists … to build something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they’re thinking, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for this,'” she said.
Samson suggested that the specter of an alleged new Russian threat may also be an effort to provoke an international response.
“A lot of times, people who are pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the US side to build something like this or … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or to use it for a louder approach to Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying that’s what’s going on with this,” Samson added. “But people have been known to take these crazy arguments and use them.”
Small pellets could go undetected
Intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small – just millimeters in diameter – that they would evade detection by ground-based and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it difficult to blame any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weaponry at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank based in Washington, DC, said that if “the pellets are not traceable, that complicates things” but “people would figure it out.”
“If the satellites start taking damage, I think you could put two and two together,” he said.
It’s not clear how much damage the small pellets could do. In November, a suspicious impact of a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was to bring three astronauts back to Earth.
“The most damage would probably be to the solar panels because they are probably the most fragile part” of the satellites, Swope said. “It would be enough, however, to damage a satellite and probably put it out of commission.”
The “weapon of fear” could threaten chaos
After such an attack, the pellets and debris would fall back toward Earth over time, possibly damaging other down-orbital systems, analysts say.
Starlink’s orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station operate in lower orbits, “so both would face risks,” according to Swope.
The space chaos such a weapon could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without having to use it, Swope said.
“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence or something,” he said.
Samson said the disadvantages of an indiscriminate pellet weapon could steer Russia away from such a path.
“They’ve invested a tremendous amount of time and money and manpower to be, you know, a space power,” she said.
Using such a weapon “would effectively cut space for them as well,” Samson said. “I don’t know if they would be willing to give up that much.”
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.