SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea is promising to reduce its reliance on coal-fired power as part of its pledge to reduce carbon emissions that contribute to climate change, but that ambition is at odds with the Trump administration’s push for more U.S. natural gas exports.
At recent United Nations climate talks, South Korea’s new Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment announced plans to phase out most of the country’s coal-fired power plants by 2040 and at least halve its carbon emissions by 2035.
Experts say this shows that South Korea, a major coal importer with one of the world’s largest fleets of coal-fired power plants, wants to speed up its transition to renewable energy, which lags behind its neighbors and global averages.
But as part of trade deals with President Donald Trump, Seoul is increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas, or LNG. Climate activists say such plans could conflict with the country’s commitments to help curb climate change and lock South Korea into a future dependent on fossil fuels.
Talks are underway for South Korea to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and buy up to $100 billion worth of U.S. energy products, including LNG, a cooled liquefied natural gas for easy storage and travel. It burns cleaner than coal, but still causes planet-warming emissions, especially methane.
Total LNG imports from South Korea may not increase if it offsets purchases of more natural gas from the US by reducing imports from other sources such as Australia and the Middle East.
However, it is not clear how South Korea will “manage and consolidate all this somewhat contradictory planning in terms of its energy sector,” said Michelle Kim, an energy specialist for the US Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Power transition challenges climate goals
South Korea’s liberal President Lee Jae Myung, who won a snap election in June, has campaigned for stronger climate commitments. They softened under his conservative predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol, who was ousted after a short-lived declaration of martial law.
“As the global temperature rises, we must all take responsible action on climate change, and Korea will have a stronger sense of responsibility in addressing the climate crisis,” Kim Sung-hwan, the inaugural Minister of Climate, Energy and Environment, said in an interview with The Associated Press.
South Korea’s goal of cutting carbon emissions by 53 percent to 61 percent of its 2018 level fell short of climate change campaigners’ expectations. Business lobbies representing major manufacturers have proposed a 48% emissions reduction target.
“This range represents an effort by the government to accommodate two very different ways of thinking about the nation’s economic and climate future,” said Joojin Kim of Seoul-based advocacy group Solutions for Our Climate.
South Korea faces climate dilemma over US deal
The South Korean government has made an ambitious pledge to increase its use of clean energy even as Trump’s high “America First” tariffs boosted energy negotiations between Seoul and Washington.
As part of its broader efforts to avoid higher tariffs, South Korea has offered to import more LNG from the US, but the final trade deal has not been announced.
The still-negotiated deal could take between three and 10 years, according to industry analysis and US federal filings. Depending on the length of the agreement, South Korea can import between 3 and 9 million tons of US LNG per year.
LNG accounted for nearly a fifth of South Korea’s total energy supply last year, according to the International Energy Agency, or IEA. The government’s target was to reduce the figure to 10.6% by 2038.
South Korea risks its climate goals if the pending trade deal increases the total volume of LNG imported, which will likely lead to an oversupply problem and excess gas flaring to justify the deal, said Insung Lee, with Greenpeace in Seoul.
“If we just replace coal plants with LNG, it means that the exit of coal does not actually lead to a green transition and only changes Korea’s dependence from coal to gas, which undermines the whole spirit of climate action,” Lee said.
South Korea’s energy mix
Renewable energy generated 7% of South Korea’s domestic power in 2022, according to the IEA. South Korean government data show it rose to 10.5 percent last year, still one of the lowest levels among leading economies.
Japan, with an economy more than twice as large, generates 21% of its energy from renewable sources. Spain, whose economy is roughly the same size as South Korea’s, gets 42% of its energy from renewable sources.
Clean energy provided about 30% of global electricity production in 2023.
Nuclear power produces a major share of South Korea’s domestic energy, with government data showing that nuclear sources accounted for 31 percent of total electricity production last year.
“We will transition to a new energy system that focuses on renewables and nuclear, while phasing out coal,” said Kim, the energy minister. He said South Korea would use LNG as a “supplementary or emergency power source” to compensate for irregularities in the supply of renewable energy.
In early December, South Korea set another goal of increasing its offshore wind capacity to 4 gigawatts, about 10 times its current level.
South Korean companies that do not reduce their carbon emissions may see this as a competitive disadvantage, said IEEFA’s Michelle Kim.
Many global industries, including shipping and aviation, face pressure to reduce their emissions, providing incentives for low emitters and creating disincentives for high emitters, she said.
“This is a big risk,” she said. “South Korea must accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and break away from high dependence on the fossil fuel industry.”
Coal trade braces for South Korea cuts
At last month’s climate talks, South Korea joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a group of businesses, organizations and governments promoting the transition to green energy.
This is mainly a symbolic move, said Bruce Douglas, with the Global Renewables Alliance. “But it does mean the government’s very clear intention to move away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy.”
South Korea imports virtually all of its coal, mostly from Australia, Indonesia and Russia, and the shift to renewables will impact regional markets.
The pledge to decommission 40 of South Korea’s 61 coal sites by 2040 could be “a forced transition” for coal exporters in the Asia-Pacific region, said Climate Analytics’ James Bowen. “It’s a reality that they’re going to have to deal with this market downturn.”
“The writing is on the wall,” Bowen said. “One of the biggest importers in the world, one of the biggest customers, is starting to move away from coal.”
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