The 2025 fourth quarter earnings season is now underway, and investors are closely monitoring the oil and energy sector, which continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and significant commodity price volatility. While the sector as a whole faces a number of challenges, a few energy companies appear well-positioned to beat earnings expectations. Capitalizing on their strategic strengths, these companies could deliver positive earnings surprises, which can lead to near-term share price growth and provide opportunities for investors despite market headwinds.
With insights from our exclusive research and market analysis, we highlight four stocks — Imperial Oil Limited imo ExxonMobil Corporation XOM, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN and Helmerich & Payne, Inc. HP — to take advantage of the positive price reaction after the announcement.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 to average $59.64 a barrel, compared to $70.69 a year earlier, mainly due to persistent global oversupply that outstripped sluggish demand growth. OPEC+ nations have gradually lifted voluntary output cuts since September, boosting production alongside steady non-OPEC supplies from US shale, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, leading to a rise in inventories of up to 2 million barrels per day.
The drop in demand resulted from slowing economic activity in China and Europe, accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, improvements in energy efficiency and emerging trade tariff uncertainties under the Trump administration.
In terms of natural gas prices, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.75 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $2.44 a year earlier. This growth was fueled by cooler-than-average winter weather that boosted heating demand in North America, robust LNG export volumes to Europe and Asia amid global energy needs, and increased consumption from power-hungry data centers supporting AI growth despite some mid-year production weakness.
With so many energy companies out there, it can be challenging for investors to identify stocks that are poised to beat earnings expectations. Although it is impossible for ordinary people to predict with 100% certainty, our unique method makes it easier.
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), the chance of earnings is up to 70%. You can spot the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP is our exclusive proprietary tool designed to identify stocks with the greatest potential to outperform. Shows the percentage difference between the most accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Imperial oil is set to report earnings on Jan. 30 before the market opens, and there’s plenty of reason for optimism surrounding the Canadian energy giant. With a history deeply intertwined with the development of Canada’s vast oil sands, Imperial Oil is one of the country’s most respected integrated oil and gas companies. The company’s operations span exploration and production through to refining and retail, positioning it as a key player in the energy sector.
Imperial Oil is expected to post earnings of $1.40 per share, which would indicate a 17.16% decrease from the prior year’s number. However, with an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank #3, Imperial Oil has demonstrated a remarkable ability to beat expectations, beating estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average surprise of 13.25%. This consistency makes IMO a compelling choice for investors seeking stability and growth in a sometimes volatile industry.
You can see full list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Next, we return to ExxonMobilwhich is also set to release its earnings on January 30 before the bell rings. ExxonMobil is arguably the most iconic name in the oil and gas industry, with a global reach that spans continents and operations in nearly every corner of the energy sector. From drilling for oil in the deepest waters to creating cutting-edge technologies that support its renewable energy initiatives, ExxonMobil has always been at the forefront of industry evolution.
For the next quarter, analysts expect XOM to report earnings of $1.64 per share, which implies a modest decline of 1.8% from the prior year figure. Despite these challenges, ExxonMobil’s ability to outperform is well established, with an impressive average earnings surprise of 5.71%. Armed with an Earnings ESP of +2.29% and a Zacks Rank #3, we expect ExxonMobil to continue its winning streak.
This is shown in the chart below:
Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation quote
Patterson-UTI Energya Houston-based oil and gas drilling services company, will report earnings on Feb. 4 after the market closes. The company is a key player in the North American energy landscape, providing critical drilling and pressure pumping services that help energy companies tap into new reserves and optimize existing wells. With an Earnings ESP of +19.15% and a Zacks Rank #3, Patterson-UTI is poised for potential earnings growth. The consensus estimate for its earnings is 12 cents per share, which is flat compared to the prior year’s performance.
Although Patterson-UTI has had a mixed record with two wins and two misses over the past four quarters, it has still managed to deliver a notable average surprise of 17.5%. Given the company’s strong position in the drilling sector and its ability to adapt to market conditions, PTEN remains one to watch.
This is shown in the chart below:
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. quote
finally, Helmerich and Payneanother titan of drilling services, is due to report earnings on February 4 after the market closes. Headquartered in Spring, TX, Helmerich & Payne is renowned for its state-of-the-art drilling rigs and commitment to technological innovation in the oil and gas drilling space. As energy companies increasingly turn to more efficient drilling methods to maximize production, HP’s modern rig fleet has made it a key player in North American oil exploration efforts.
For the next quarter, we expect HP to report earnings of 51 cents per share, down 15% from the year-ago figure. However, with an Earnings ESP of +14.85% and a Zacks Rank #3, the company is still expected to beat expectations, continuing the trend of positive earnings surprises. Over the past four quarters, HP’s earnings have beaten expectations twice and met them twice, delivering an average surprise of 10.95%. For investors closely following the oil and gas drilling sector, HP remains an important company to follow.
This is shown in the chart below:
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Quoted by Helmerich & Payne, Inc
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