Just to give you an update before we get into predictions or fundamentals, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $65,000 right now.
In mid-January, Bitcoin stood at $75,000. Since then, he has not fallen off a cliff; it was slowly, uncomfortably bleeding lower. The first $72,000. Then $70,000. Then $68,000. And now, $65,000.
Related: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Drops to $40,000 After $1T Market Wipeout
This kind of slow collapse is often more unsettling than a sudden fall. There is no single title of blame, no candle of obvious panic, just the selling and extinguishing of confidence.
Earlier, I had FTX, Luna, several reasons to blame. Today is one of those times where there is no real reason to blame this accident.
And analysts are beginning to speak loudly about the quiet part. Some are warning that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000. Others, including a Zacks Investment Research analyst, have presented scenarios where BTC could revisit $40,000 if risk appetite continues to deteriorate.
So yes, crypto markets are under pressure. The feeling is weak. ETF flows are negative. Even gold and silver, supposed safe havens, were volatile.
That’s exactly why JPMorgan’s latest call is so shocking.
Because while Bitcoin is on the slide, the largest bank in the US just said that BTC could hit $266,000.
In a report published this week, JPMorgan analysts led by CEO Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin has become more attractive than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, even amid the current market pullback.
Specifically, analysts focused on the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, which fell to around 1.5, a record low. That means Bitcoin is no longer more volatile than gold, at least by historical standards.
“Gold’s significant outperformance against bitcoin since October last year, coupled with the sharp increase in gold volatility, has made bitcoin look even more attractive compared to gold over the long term.” the analysts wrote.
Using this framework, JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s market cap would need to grow enough to imply a price of around $266,000 per BTC to match the size of private sector gold investment, which it pegs at around $8 trillion (excluding central bank holdings).
The bank was careful to add context.
That price target is “unrealistic” for this year, analysts said. But it becomes plausible in the long run once the negative sentiment fades and Bitcoin is once again viewed as a credible hedge against extreme economic scenarios.
The important thing is that the bank is not blind to what is happening now.
JPMorgan noted that crypto markets came under renewed pressure as tech stocks weakened, risky assets sold off and investor confidence took another hit following the $29 million attack on Solana-based DeFi platform Step Finance.
Bitcoin’s recent decline has also pushed it below estimated production costs, which JPMorgan pegs at around $87,000. Historically, the cost of production has acted as a “soft price ceiling”, but if BTC remains below this level, unprofitable miners could exit the market, driving costs – and potentially prices – even lower.
Despite this, analysts pointed out that the liquidations were relatively modest compared to previous crashes. Deleveraging in futures markets was less severe than the October 2025 write-off, and institutional selling in CME futures was limited.
The real story here is not $266,000. It’s gold.
JPMorgan recently raised its long-term outlook for gold to $8,000-$8,500 an ounce, citing structural demand and volatility dynamics.
This is happening now.
If Bitcoin continues to converge toward gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan argues, its long-term upside becomes mathematically difficult to ignore, even if the road there is ugly.
-
January 2024: JPMorgan said Bitcoin’s fair value approached $45,000, warning that the post-ETF hype could fade and pressure prices in the near term.
-
June 2024: Analysts argued that Bitcoin was still a “high-beta risk asset,” projecting trading in ranges unless institutional adoption accelerated significantly.
-
November 2024: JPMorgan introduced a benchmark against gold, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach more than $150,000 in several years if it captures some of the private investment demand for gold.
-
October 2025: The bank highlighted a positive case of $165,000 to $170,000 over 6 to 12 months driven by improving volatility dynamics against gold.
-
End of November 2025: JPMorgan extended its long-term thesis, offering a $240,000 structural upside if Bitcoin matured as a macroeconomic hedging asset.
-
February 2026: Analysts raised the theoretical long-term target to $266,000, calling it unrealistic in the short term but achievable over time if Bitcoin continues to compete with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies is extremely volatile and risky. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.
Related: MicroStrategy Struggles Ahead of Earnings After Latest Bitcoin Crash
This story was originally published by TheStreet on February 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a favorite source by clicking here.
