CAIRO (AP) — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has crushed protests that swept the country last month, but only by unleashing the bloodiest crackdown of his nearly four decades in power.
Now, with a US flotilla nearby, the 86-year-old Khamenei is trying to head off a potential US attack. He warned that if US President Donald Trump strikes, a regional war will follow. At the same time, he allows Iran to enter into negotiations with the US over its nuclear program, reversing its earlier rejection of talks.
The fierce crackdown on the protests is a sign of how deep a threat Khamenei and Iran’s leadership see in widespread popular anger. Years of sanctions, economic mismanagement and corruption have destroyed Iran’s economy, hitting its once-large middle class hard. Chants of “Death to Khamenei!” during the January protests highlighted how economic problems had turned into resentment of the clerical leadership.
Popular discontent is not the only pressure on the theocratic system Khamenei presides over. Israeli and American bombing during last summer’s 12-day war severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program, missile systems and military capabilities. And Iran’s network of regional proxies, which includes Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — dubbed the “Axis of Resistance” — has collapsed in recent years, reducing its ability to exert influence in the Middle East.
However, Iran’s internal repression has shown the iron grip that Khamenei and his Revolutionary Guards are capable of imposing. Thousands of people were killed, tens of thousands were arrested and the internet was shut down, preventing most Iranians from communicating with the outside world for weeks.
Here’s what you need to know about Khamenei:
He transformed the Islamic Republic
When he came to power in 1989, Khamenei had to overcome deep doubts about his authority. A low-level cleric at the time, Khamenei lacked the religious credentials of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution. With thick glasses and a weighty style, Khamenei also lacked Khomeini’s fiery charisma.
But Khamenei ruled three times as long as the late Khomeini and shaped the Islamic Republic of Iran perhaps even more dramatically.
He entrenched the system of government by “mullahs” or Shiite Muslim clerics. Under the Islamic Republic, clerics sit at the top of the hierarchy, drawing the lines to which the civilian government, the military, and the intelligence and security establishment must obey. In the eyes of hardliners, Khamenei is the undisputed authority – second only to God.
At the same time, Khamenei turned the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant player in Iran’s military and domestic politics.
The Guard boasts Iran’s most elite military and oversees its ballistic missile program. Khamenei also gave the Guard free rein to build a business network, allowing it to dominate Iran’s economy. Instead, the Guard became his loyal shock force.
He avoided internal challenges
The first major threat to Khamenei’s grip was the reform movement that swept to a parliamentary majority and the presidency shortly after he became supreme leader. The movement advocated giving more power to elected officials — something Khamenei’s hardline supporters feared would lead to the unraveling of the Islamic Republic’s system.
Khamenei thwarted the reformists by rallying the clerical establishment. Unelected bodies led by mullahs have succeeded in shutting down major reforms and preventing reform candidates from running in elections.
With the failure of the reform movement, waves of popular protests followed, each crushed by the Revolutionary Guard and Iran’s other security agencies.
Huge nationwide protests erupted in 2009 over allegations of vote fraud. Under the weight of sanctions, economic protests erupted in 2017 and 2019. More demonstrations erupted in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini after police detained her for not wearing the mandatory headscarf.
Successive crackdowns have killed hundreds and hundreds more have been arrested amid reports of detainees being tortured to death or raped in prison.
The deadliest crackdown yet
The latest bloodshed eclipsed those past disturbances. The demonstrations began in late December in Tehran’s traditional bazaar after the rial fell to a record low of 1.42 million to the US dollar. They quickly spread to the cities of Iran.
Khamenei said “the rioters must be put in their place”, giving the go-ahead for a crackdown. When hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets on January 8 and 9, protesters who are veterans of previous demonstrations said they were stunned by the firepower unleashed, with security forces firing into the crowds.
Activists say they have so far documented more than 6,700 killed and are working to verify possibly thousands more. The government set the fee much lower at 3,117, still higher than previous crackdowns.
In the past, authorities have tried to defuse public anger by easing some of the Islamic Republic’s social restrictions or acknowledging economic problems.
But so far, Khamenei has stepped up his rhetoric, referring to the protests as “a coup”. Activists say tens of thousands have been detained in recent weeks.
Nuclear negotiations
By agreeing to nuclear negotiations with the US, Khamenei could be looking to buy time to avoid US attacks – or count on Trump’s threats to be a bluff. Turkey, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have all been working to try to arrange talks, which could take place in the coming days.
But the two sides are far from each other. Iran has strongly opposed key US demands that it halt all nuclear enrichment and give up its uranium stockpile.
Trump was vague about the purpose of the airstrikes. He initially threatened strikes to prevent Iranian leaders from killing peaceful protesters or to prevent mass executions. He moved on to threatening to push Iran to seriously engage in nuclear negotiations.
Some in Iran and the large Iranian diaspora have expressed hope that the US will use military force to topple Khamenei. But that could require an enormous military operation, probably far beyond simple airstrikes. There are also strong voices even among Khamenei’s opponents against foreign intervention to topple the theocracy.
And the scenario of Khamenei’s removal only brings to the fore the question that has loomed over his reign as it grows: Who or what would come after him?
Officially, a group of Shiite clerics is tasked with choosing one of them as his successor, and several names are being floated among leading Shiite clerics, including Khamenei’s son. But under Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards became the most powerful body behind the robes of the ruling clerics.
The violent removal of the Supreme Leader could lead to Guard commanders or the regular army taking power more openly. That could spark a bloody conflict over control of the oil-rich country of 85 million people.