Michael Saylor isn’t backing down from his Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bet, even after the crypto briefly dipped below $62,000 last week and as Strategy (MSTR) faces mounting paper losses. A video from May 2025 has gone viral again after Bitcoin lost half of its October value of over $126,000. In the video, Saylor makes a bold statement: “If only people in the rest of the world knew what I know […] and they agreed with me, Bitcoin will hit $10 million tomorrow.”
The timing couldn’t be worse for that clip to resurface. Strategy just disclosed that it acquired 855 BTC for $75.3 million, paying an average of $87,974 per coin, according to a regulatory filing. With Bitcoin now trading near $69,000, those fresh purchases are already underwater.
According to one CCN The report, Strategy now holds 713,502 BTC purchased for approximately $54.3 billion at an average cost of $76,052 per coin. At current prices, those holdings are now valued at about $50 billion, leaving the firm with more than $4 billion in unrealized losses. In October, Strategy’s Bitcoin stock showed paper gains approaching $33 billion. The reversal was brutal.
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MSTR stock has also been hammered. Shares are down about 12% year-to-date (YTD), 44% over the past three months, and 60% over the past 52 weeks. MSTR shares are also down more than 70% from their July 2025 peak of $457.22.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Strategy posted a net loss of $12.4 billion, or $42.93 per share on a diluted basis, compared with $670.8 million in the year-ago period. Strategy’s operating loss was $17.4 billion, up from $1 billion a year earlier.
Despite the bloodbath, Saylor sees Bitcoin’s volatility as an opportunity rather than a problem.
“Volatility has been a gift to believers,” Saylor said in the viral video. “It scares the tourist. It scares the lazy. It scares the people who are already conventionally rich and have all the money.” Strategy’s founder argues that wild price swings benefit younger investors who have “more time than money” and can stack Bitcoin over 20 years at lower prices.
Saylor made it clear he was not selling. In fact, Strategy bought more Bitcoin amid the recent selloff.
That said, questions about whether the company might have to liquidate Bitcoin have reached an all-time high. CEO Phong Le admitted in late November that Strategy could be forced to sell Bitcoin if the stock trades below the value of the underlying holdings. Saylor later clarified that the company would only consider selling if the net asset value (NAV) falls below 1.
At the time of reporting, the Strategy’s NPV is 1.1, still above the threshold. It reflects a small premium, but is well below the exuberant multiples seen during Bitcoin rallies. Strategy maintains a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, enough to cover dividend payments for two and a half years without touching BTC. The company said it plans to keep the reserve at a level sufficient to fund two to three years of dividends.
The first major debt maturity doesn’t come until September 2028. Strategy’s convertible debt is unsecured, meaning a Bitcoin crash could go on for some time before becoming a serious problem.
A worst-case scenario would only occur if a long-term disappearing stock premium prevents the company from refinancing maturing debt.
Saylor’s $10 million claim sparked backlash on social media. Users questioned his logic and mindset, with some sarcastically remarking that if everyone agreed on the value of an asset, anything could be worth trillions.
Critics warn that Strategy’s debt-backed accumulation of Bitcoin has increased leverage and centralization risks. With Bitcoin now trading below the company’s average cost, the Strategy’s primary funding method of issuing shares becomes less efficient and increases the risk of dilution.
Some compare the situation to past speculative bubbles such as Tulip Mania. Others point to technological concerns, including Bitcoin’s energy consumption, the impact of the halving on miners’ economics, and increasing centralization.
Saylor remains convinced that Bitcoin will surpass gold by 2035. In an interview, Saylor said he has “no doubt” that BTC will become a bigger asset class than gold, citing scarcity, widespread adoption and long-term demand.
However, the Strategy’s aggressive focus on accumulating BTC faces real challenges. The company battled for inclusion in the S&P 500 ($SPX), coming up short in both September and December. Getting a seat would have meant institutional credibility and passive inflows.
MSCI last year presented a proposal to classify firms such as Strategy, whose balance sheets are dominated by digital assets, as non-operating companies. Saylor strongly pushed back, arguing that the company remains an active business that uses BTC strategically.
Strategy offered a BTC return of 22.8% in 2025, surpassing the lower end of its target range. The company’s revenue was $123 million in Q4, with a gross profit of $81.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents reached $2.3 billion as of Dec. 31, up from just $38.1 million a year earlier, reflecting the build-up of the USD reserve.
For now, Saylor shows no signs of budging on his Bitcoin strategy, even as critics grow louder and losses mount. The company claimed a 50% decline before during the crypto winter of 2022, when Bitcoin remained below its average entry price for 16 months.
“Our long-term focus remains unchanged,” CFO Andrew Kang said on the Q4 earnings call. “We are committed to growing Bitcoin per share and building sustainable shareholder value over the long term.” Whether that belief pays off or becomes a cautionary tale depends on Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next few years. For Saylor, the bet is all or nothing.
The strategy has an overall consensus rating of “Strong Buy”. Out of 16 analysts covering MSTR stock, 13 recommend a “Strong Buy”, one recommends a “Moderate Buy” rating and two recommend a “Hold” rating. The average target price of $419.43 implies upside potential of about 215% from current levels.
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At the time of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
