LOS ANGELES (AP) — How many Democrats are too many?
In the California governor’s race, so many Democratic candidates have crowded into the race that party members have become fearful of a historic calamity in the making. It has become mathematically possible for Democrats to split the vote so much that two Republicans advance from the June primary to the general election.
“It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could that happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell said.
The uncertainty of the outcome stems from the state’s unpredictable “top two” primary system. All candidates appear on one ballot, but only the top two advance to the November general election, regardless of party. It’s the first time since voters approved the system more than a decade ago that there has been a gubernatorial race without a clear leader, helping to fuel a “Why not me?” mentality among the large number of Democrats flooding into the contest.
“There’s a very real chance it could be only Republicans on the ballot in November,” warned the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democratic candidate for governor, in a recent fundraising presentation.
A political shock in the making?
While it remains a distant prospect, it’s hard to underestimate the political shock that would come with two Republicans sitting atop the California midterm vote. The state is known as a Democratic stronghold, and a GOP candidate hasn’t won a national election in two decades. It would also have implications for down-ballot races, including congressional battlegrounds that could determine control of the U.S. House.
Why so many candidates? The California governor’s seat has always had a magnetic allure — it’s one of the most powerful political platforms in the nation. The state – itself – is ranked as the fourth largest economy in the world. It is the nation’s largest agricultural producer and home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget totals nearly $350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equal to Netflix’s market value.
Candidates attracted by wide open elections
With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, it’s the most open gubernatorial contest in a generation.
Dozens of people have filed to run, from a student to a billionaire. Among them are at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising machines to seriously compete.
That list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; former State Comptroller Betty Yee and Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, former state Assembly Majority Leader.
With Democrats occupying much of the same ideological ground, the candidates highlight other indicators to break away from the pack. Swalwell, for example, campaigned in part for his role as House manager in Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, the newest candidate in the race, has been a frequent critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is among Mahan’s most prominent critics, saying he is too aligned with tech interests.
Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on their own.
It would be best if “people at the lower levels quit,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You’re looking at people who will never break through.”
Uncertainty comes with the “top two” primary.
Mitchell said he used the available polling data to run a series of simulations to gauge the likelihood of a double GOP breakthrough and found that it was possible, albeit with high odds. The front-runners for the GOP are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.
California is one of the strongest Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 statewide, Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010, and Republicans have been reduced to helpless spectators in the Legislature.
In a primary, Democrats are expected to split about 60 percent of the vote, Republicans 40 percent. The math becomes difficult for Democrats if the party has a long list of credible candidates in the race, cutting into their vote share.
“It’s a low probability, but what a massive deal it would be,” Mitchell said. The dilemma for Democrats: “There’s no one to come and tell these lower-level candidates they can’t run.”
Republicans, for their part, are also worried about the complicated math. Hilton asked Bianco to step down in hopes that Republicans would rally to push a candidate in the November election.
“We can’t risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate.
Democrats in search of national leader
The race bears some resemblance to the fast-growing 2028 Democratic presidential contest, where a large field is coming together to fight for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping from the debates the national party suffered in 2024, and candidates in both races are testing messages they hope will galvanize voters in the midterms and beyond.
With Republicans in control of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the glut of candidates is a sign of both energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.
The common denominator between the races: “We have to learn how to focus on the expansion game and strengthening our coalition,” Seawright said.