President Donald Trump dismissed the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (LBS) after the department reviewed the latest jobs of more than 250,000.
He says the figures were “restrained” that his administration would “look bad”.
Although the latest amendments were higher than usual, it is normal for the initial number to be changed and this has happened regularly with both democratic and Republican presidents.
How are the work data collected?
The BLS leader – known as the Commissioner – does not play any role in collecting data or collection, only to review the final press release before the announcement, according to the former members of the commission.
“My reaction was,” It could not happen, “says Katharine Abraham, who was in 1993-2001. He served as commissioner of the BLS, about Trump’s claims that the numbers were restrained.
“The commissioner does not control what the numbers are,” she adds.
The BLS job statement is based on two studies – one that collects data from about 60,000 households, the other of 121,000 public and private sector employers.
President Trump defended the BLS Head shooting for what he says are “wrong” figures [Getty Images]
Employers’ survey, often referred to as a survey of institutions, survey is related to the calculations of the increase in work. Due to the large sample size, it is usually considered to be a more reliable survey of household.
Most of the answers are provided by large companies, usually included in a program that automatically provides employment information. BLS staff also conducts Internet surveys and telephone conversations.
“The initial payroll accounting ratings are a pre -gaze on what happened every month,” BBC said Eliment.
“This is a quick, but lower resolution image of what happened in a certain month in the labor market. Because the revised ratings are based on more detailed data, they create a higher resolution image – and sometimes revised data creates a different image,” he added.
The office updates the data within two months after the initial estimate of the month as it receives more answers. It also recalculates the numbers every year to include data from unemployment insurance tax records.
“There are all these career people who also have data, and if the commissioner tried to change the numbers they all know, and that will come out,” says prof. Abraham.
How unusual is the latest reviews?
May and June The numbers were reviewed by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively.
The 258,000 overall two -month reduction is the biggest change as the records began except in 2020. Months after Covid Pandemic’s outbreak.
However, there are changes every month, and major changes are not unprecedented.
In this case, many analysts were already hoping for June. Views that showed an unusual increase in school employment a month when most schools were about to close in the summer.
Subsequent answers also disproportionately reflect smaller firms that are more vulnerable to economic changes such as tariffs, analysts note.
May The painting was adjusted mainly in response to the June review and corresponds to other data showing the slowdown.
[BBC]
According to BLS, the average number of jobs (up or down) the average monthly job (up or down) is 57,000.
However, reviews usually increase during the economic turmoil.
In addition to the last numbers and 2020 Covido period since 2000 There were eight more cases of BLS a month view of more than 100,000 jobs – most of them occurred around 2008. In the financial crisis.
For example, 2009 January Decreased by 143,000 when President Barack Obama was in office.
The BLS also stated that the increase in all year’s work in 2009. Was 902,000 lower than he initially appreciated – the biggest review of the year.
2024. Created jobs led by President Joe Biden were reviewed by 598,000, although it was a smaller change than initially estimated at more than 800,000, which also caused a political decline.
Prof
“It’s always difficult when you’re in a place where things can change, and then you add that the staff was restrained and the agencies had no resources to invest in respondents as they could have in the past,” she says.
Was there any problems with data in the past?
The percentage of answers has declined dramatically over the last decade, accelerating after pandemic and concerns about data reliability.
For example, in March, The percentage of answers was less than 43% compared to more than 60% earlier.
Other countries, including Canada, Sweden and the UK, fought similar falls. The percentage of responses to labor research decreased by about 20%in the UK.
The US refusal has led to some effort to investigate new data collection methods, including online surveys.
However, the importance of the problem remains the issue of discussion.
March this year In the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, the researchers’ review found that in recent years, the amendments were mainly in line with pandemic patterns, which they say should be delighted with those who are worried about reliability.
[BBC]
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