The Federal Reserve Bank is expected to announce its first annual interest rate reduction on 17 September, perhaps by introducing many reductions to reduce borrowing rates for companies and consumers.
Economists and investors hope that a quarter of the percentage point is reduced, as reports show that the job market is weaker than previously thought. Economists interviewed by Bloomberg hope that 2025 2025
This decision is made by President Donald Trump trying to make a greater influence on the central bank, and is a concern about his own independence from politics.
A few months later, when Fed President Jerome Powell was pushed to reduce aggressive tariff, the president has taken steps to stack the Federal Board with his appointments. August He moved to the Fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who intends to continue his role in waiting for litigation. Trump’s administration also tried to quickly encourage Stephen Miran candidate to the empty nest on the board, and the Senate confirmed his appointment on the eve of the September meeting.
Powell “now has to reduce interest rates and higher than he had in mind,” said short September 15th. “Social of Truth”.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaks at a press conference after 2025 July 30 Issued a statement by the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington.
Fed intends to reveal its decision on the rate at 2 p.m. In the morning with a press conference. Follow direct updates.
Fed is going to release its quarter -point plot, which describes where officials believe the interest rates will move further.
The calculations “will be carefully examined,” the Kathy Bostjancic, the chief economist of the country, wrote in particular to see, “especially to see” if the average interest rate estimate still requires two-quarter points by the end of the year.
According to Bloomberg survey, economists are divided whether Fed will reduce tariffs two or three times this year;
Fed could also move its forecasts in 2026. Bostjancic expects to reduce twice as more than 50 base points in total, while the bond market reduces 75 base points.
– Bailey Schulz
Expected
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– Bailey Schulz
While most economists expect a quarter of a quarter of September, some FED officials may encourage the reduction of a more aggressive rate.
Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, Trump, ordered those who disagree in July, as well as the newly appointed Stephen Miran may have disagreed with at least half of the percentage reduction, according to the comment of economist Michael Ferol from JP Morgan.
According to Deutsche Bank research economists who say the decision “is unlikely to be united”, there is also a chance that the regional president or two votes for steady rates.
The meeting may be the first with three disagreement managers since 1988.
– Bailey Schulz
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 22,000 jobs in August in August. Unemployment percentage has reached 4.3%, which is the highest level from 2021. October, and corrections indicate that the economy in June. Impaired 13,000 jobs – the first month of job loss from 2020. December
Other reports also show that the job market is weakening. The July work report revealed that the increase in the previous two months was viewed by a 258,000 eye. In the next September 9th. The report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that companies hired nearly a million fewer employees than previously calculated within a 12 -month period in March.
Trump ordered the dismissal of the US Commissioner for Labor Statistics, Erika Mcentarfer, shortly after a weak job report was published in July, accusing her without evidence of manipulating data.
– Bailey Schulz, Andrea Riquier
According to the Labor Department, consumer prices in August. August – 2.9% – while the main inflation that does not include more volatile items such as food and energy, stable – 3.1%.
Although from 2022 Reduced 9.1% of inflation has cooled significantly and remains over 2% of the Fed target.
– Bailey SchulzIs it Andrea Riquier
The main Wall Street arrows were enslaved on 17 September. Before the Fed Widely Wailed Solution.
Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones industry average increased by 0.47%and the Tech-Heavy Nasdaq decreased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 benchmark decreased by 0.094%.
The Fed meeting will be a test of recent Wall Street rally when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will reach record heights during the last six activities increased by interest rate expectations and revived the enthusiasm for AI warehouse trading.
Investors say that renewal of the Fed norm can increase the Wall Street rally, although such an impetus would depend on whether lower interest rates can help the US economy prevent decline.
– Reuters, Bailey Schulz
The rates are challenging the Fed, as they are expected to increase consumer prices and curb growth, leaving the Fed’s mandate to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. Recent reports indicate that the labor market is weakened and inflation remains greater than 2% of the Fed target.
The latest economic data “pushes the FMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in an awkward position,” – September 11. Said Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist in the United States.
– Bailey Schulz
The CM Fedwatch tool shows 94% of the likelihood that in September a quarter percentage point will decrease, with a 6% probability that half of the current point will reduce from the current 4.25% to 4.5%.
Fed Fund’s future markets are betting on three tariffs this year. In a recent Bloomberg survey, more than 40% of economists agree, although the survey median respondent only provides two. Those respondents were divided into whether the second would take place in October or December.
– Bailey Schulz
The Court of Appeal on 15 September Has decided that Fed Governor Lisa Cook could perform his duties when she struggles with President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove her from the central bank in court.
Trump’s administration accused Cook for fraud by scaming a mortgage, demanding two riches as its primary place, and saying that it allows the short shot Cook “for a reason”. Cook denied unlawful acts and was not accused of crime.
Recent Reuters reports have shown that Cook has declared its second property as a holiday house and seems to be fighting for Cook critics.
Trump’s unprecedented step to Fire Cook, the first black woman on the Fed Board, has been concerned about the central bank’s independence of politics. The Trump demanded that the Fed would reduce the aggressive rate and stated in August that its board would soon have most of the appointments that would reduce interest rates.
– Bailey Schulz
Senate September 15 Confirmed that President Donald Trump had chosen to join the Fed Governor’s Council, just one day ahead of the two -day decision on the tariff decision.
Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Council, is going to fill the blank space left by former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who has left this role in August. Both he and Cook will vote in September. Let’s meet.
The appointment of Miran led to concern about Fed’s independence from politics. The Trump demanded that the Fed would reduce the aggressive rate and stated in August that its board would soon have most of the appointments that would reduce interest rates.
Miran said he would be committed to preserving the Fed’s autonomy and told legislators that he was “very self -determined.”
Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, hopes Miran will require at least half of the percentage reduction.
“By the expected decision to reduce the rates by 25 BPS (base points), we will probably see at least one disagreement for a higher reduction,” said Gregory on 17 September.
– Bailey Schulz
From December, when the Fed last announced a quarter percentage drop, the Federal Federal Funds did not change 4.25% to 4.5%.
– Bailey Schulz
Fed is adjusted by interest rates to maintain stable prices and maximum employment.
When inflation is high, the FED can increase tariffs to make borrowing more expensive and cooler economic activities. When the labor market is weak, reduction rates can promote economic growth and hiring because they borrowed cheaper.
– Bailey Schulz
This article initially appeared in USA Today: Fed meeting Live updates: Solution on interest rate today
