By Greg Torode and Yimou Lee
HONG KONG/TAIPEI, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Some Chinese online users are calling for a Venezuela-style ouster of Taiwan’s leaders in a prelude to taking over the island, but analysts, researchers and security officials say China’s modernizing military is still far from ready.
In Taiwan, they say, China’s military has an adversary that has been preparing for years against a “beheading operation” of its leaders, in addition to extensive air defenses and radar capabilities, and likely support from the United States and its allies.
Although China has spent years acquiring advanced weapons, questions remain about the People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities to use them effectively, as well as a command structure that must unite them in battle.
“Once such an operation runs into trouble, it will quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict with extremely high political and military risk,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic People’s Party.
Taiwan’s layered air defense and early warning systems mean any airstrike or special operations infiltration effort would risk detection as it crosses the Taiwan Strait, presaging escalation, he added.
The United States showed its forces’ battle-tested air dominance with last weekend’s operation to extract Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
Its military controlled the skies with stealth fighter jets, aircraft that jammed enemy defenses, and stealthy reconnaissance drones and satellites that provided commanders with real-time intelligence.
By contrast, the PLA “still has clear gaps in actual experience of joint operations, electromagnetic and electronic warfare capabilities, and actual validation of high-risk missions,” Chen said.
China’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters.
CHINA HAS NOT RULED OUT FORCE TO TAKE TAIWAN
China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China’s claims.
“Operationally, while the PLA has recently been trying to catch up on force integration, it’s still baby steps compared to what the Americans have built up over decades,” said Singapore-based security researcher Collin Koh.
Taiwan is determined to defend its sovereignty and step up its defenses, President Lai Ching-te said last month after Beijing fired missiles at Taiwan as part of its latest military exercises.
The exercises around Taiwan – the most extensive to date – were accompanied by strong messages from Chinese officials and the military.
“Any foreign forces that try to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely have their bloody heads crushed by the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layer air defense system called “T-Dome”.
It is intended to be similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome” with a more efficient and “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism for a higher kill rate that integrates weapons from Taiwan-developed Sky Bow missiles to US-supplied HIMARS missile systems.
In July, the Taiwanese military staged an exercise to protect Taipei’s main airport from a hostile landing, deploying rockets and man-portable tanks.
MADURO EXTRACTION INSPIRES SOME
While military attachés say China has war-gaming mining operations in Taipei in a wide range of military options to seize control of Taiwan, some Chinese online users have cited the US action in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The situation in Venezuela has given us a solution for the unification of Taiwan,” said one user on the X-type microblogging site Weibo.
“First use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately announce the takeover of Taiwan, issue new ID cards… and achieve a quick and decisive victory.”
Chen, who sits on Taiwan’s parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, dismissed such remarks as “fantasy,” and other analysts said any such attempt would quickly run up against harsh military realities.
China has added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities have yet to be delineated, Koh said.
With the ruling Communist Party still playing a role in the PLA’s command structure, doubts remain about its effectiveness, added Koh, who is at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“A decentralized command and control hierarchy is essential; allowing field commanders to exercise the initiative needed to deal with the fluid, evolving and uncertain nature of military operations as events unfold,” Koh said.
Despite any perceived shortcomings of the PLA, Taiwan’s leaders are not taking any chances.
“We don’t have the capital to take them lightly,” said a senior Taiwanese security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the military issues are sensitive.
“After all, following this painful and shocking experience, China will look for all kinds of ways to overcome these problems.”
(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Yimou Lee in Taipei; Additional reporting by Laurie Chen, Tiffany Le and Beijing staff; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)