Apple (AAPL) seems to be opting for edge pain instead of sticker shock.
Memory prices continue to rise due to relentless demand from AI data centers, but Apple is looking to avoid iPhone price hikes, even if it means taking a hit.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been a veteran covering Apple’s supply chain for several years, says the tech giant will stick with their approach when it launches the much-anticipated iPhone 18at least for now.
This pivotal decision puts the strength of Apple’s supply chain under the scanner as it heads for gains on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (after the market closes).
After covering the memory space extensively over the past few months, it’s clear that vendors have a lot of leverage for the foreseeable future.
Bellwethers in space, such as Micronare building mammoth factories to ease supply constraints, but most of these efforts are long-term, indicating potential problems for at least the next two years.
Of course, most hardware companies have no choice but to raise prices, but Apple isn’t your average hardware company.
Apple can take the hits and is far more insulated than any other hardware company in history, which could become its greatest strength amid the memory crisis.
Apple plans to keep iPhone 18 prices flat despite rising memory costs squeezing short-term marginsPhoto by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin on Getty Images” loading=”eager” height=”686″ width=”960″ class=”yf-lglytj loader”/>
Apple plans to keep iPhone 18 prices flat despite rising memory costs squeezing short-term marginsPhoto by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin on Getty Images ·Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin on Getty Images
Conformable TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is looking to take it on the chin with higher memory costs, instead of risking iPhone prices.
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Kuo’s reading is that Apple senses an opportunity in one that plays effectively to its scale and extraordinary supply chain.
In a post on X, Kuo acknowledged that higher memory costs will hit iPhone gross margins. However, we continued to say that,
Kuo boils down Apple’s thinking to three key moves.
Absorb the pain now: Memory prices are rising at an incredible rate, and Apple is opting for margin pressure over consumer backlash.
Locking Supply: Apple’s scale allows it to effectively secure components that others cannot, even as shortages grow.
Play the long game: Any short-term margin hit will be seen as temporary, with service revenue likely to fill in over time.
However, there is a significant risk that these pressures will not be contained, as Kuo notes that iPhone memory prices are still renegotiated on a quarterly rather than a semi-annual basis.
For now, he feels that “growth in the 2Q26 quarter looks similar to 1Q26.“
That dynamic therefore makes Apple’s upcoming earnings commentary doubly crucial, as what it says about memory, supply and cost pressures could ripple beyond the company itself.
Apple will report its holiday quarter earnings tomorrowtracking a familiar mix of growth and pressure points.
iPhone sales is expected to post its healthiest year-over-year profit in four years, driven by premium Pro demand and a comeback in China.
Related: Morgan Stanley resets Apple stock estimate ahead of earnings
Services will continue to do the hard work on the bottom line, even with regulatory roadblocks in Europe. Perhaps the biggest wildcard is margin pressure from skyrocketing memory costs, which Apple is willing to absorb.
AI hovers over all this, with further developments on Siri face after Apple’s connection with The twins from Google.
Apple’s last quarter (Q4 2025) by the numbers
Total Net Sales:102.47 billion dollarsup about 8% year on year (compared to USD 94.93 billion), defeating the consensus expectations of approx 102.1 billion dollars.
EPS (diluted):$1.85compared to $0.97 a year earlier (the previous year’s figure was affected by a one-time tax) and before consensus close estimates $1.77.
Gross margin (dollars):48.34 billion dollarsup from 43.9 billion dollars in the prior-year quarter, reflecting strong operating leverage despite cost pressures.
Net income:27.46 billion dollarsalmost doubling from 14.74 billion dollars a year earlier, underscoring the earnings power of Apple’s mix and scale. Source: Apple Inc., Q4 FY2025 Form 10-K
The iPhone 17 series has been an outlier for Apple, and analysts agree.
According to IDC data cited by ReutersApple is estimated to ship close 247 million iPhones in 2025above 6% year on yeardriven by superb demand, especially in China.
Bank of America expects a strong December quarter for Apple, and in the earnings preview we covered, it raised its iPhone unit sales estimate for the quarter 85 milliondesigning Year-over-year growth of 17%..
On top of that, BofA’s modeling 13% year-over-year service growtha remarkable showing given the softness in China’s App Store trends.
According to recent reports, Apple’s iPhone 18 cycle may not be the usual “all at once” September reveal.
Related: Samsung Launches Galaxy S26 Ultra
Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggests that Apple may be prioritizing it premium iPhone 18 models in fall 2026 (probably September)then push the base back iPhone 18 model and a cheaper “18e” in spring 2027 (around March).
This spreads things out for Apple, and given that the menu is skewed early, it could raise Apple’s effective prices, even if sticker prices don’t move things.
Fall 2026 (premium wave):
iPhone 18 Pro.
iPhone 18 Pro Max.
The first foldable iPhone it is discussed as part of the premium wave that is expected to be $2,000 to $2,500.
Spring 2027 (mass market wave):
Apple reset the price scale with the iPhone 17, resetting the price scale with the latest model, effectively pairing it with larger core storage with familiar title rates:
iPhone 17: marketed from $799; Apple Lists $829 if you “login yourself later” (256GB).
iPhone Air: from $999 (256 GB).
iPhone 17 Pro: from $1,099.
iPhone 17 Pro Max: Apple shows $1,199 for 256GB (and $1,399 for 512GB). Source: Apple.
Related: Veteran Analyst Dumps Intel Shares
This story was originally published by TheStreet on January 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the Technology section. Add TheStreet as a favorite source by clicking here.