In two words, Elon Musk changed the classic methods of revolution forever. “Turn on Starlink,” he said in a social media post about Iran in 2022, suddenly giving the Islamic Republic’s 90 million citizens the ability to access the Internet in a way that no regime could block or censor.
It was an extraordinary challenge to a control system painstakingly constructed by Iran’s leadership and imposed for decades by a ruthless security state. The regime has routinely sought to hide its bloody crackdown on protests — and prevent opponents from communicating or organizing — by shutting down the internet.
Amid the current unrest, authorities have taken the draconian step of disconnecting the entire country from the internet for the first time since 2019. A nationwide blackout has been imposed since last Thursday with dramatic effects, even disrupting telephone networks and landlines, forcing Iran to return to a pre-19th century communications era and causing colossal economic damage.
Above, Musk’s SpaceX constellation of satellites was supposed to give any Iranian with a Starlink terminal — a satellite dish the size of a laptop — a way to bypass all restrictions and connect to the Internet.
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Up to 50,000 of these terminals are believed to be active in Iran, defying an official ban, having been smuggled into the country since 2022, when Musk first activated the satellite network.
This time, however, Musk’s system appears to have been overtaken as the state adjusts its tactics in an increasingly sophisticated game of technological cat-and-mouse.
Regime experts have so far implemented two highly effective countermeasures. I can’t block Starlink internet connections, but I can slow them down so drastically as to make them virtually unusable.
Each Starlink terminal uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to find the right location for a satellite connection. Security forces are now jamming GPS signals, focusing on areas of Iran where protests are taking place.
The “military-grade” equipment needed for this purpose was “probably supplied by Russia or China,” says Mahsa Alimardani, associate director at Witness, an organization that uses audio-visual technology to document human rights abuses.
Both Russia and China have done their best to figure out how to blind or disrupt the GPS network, which was invented and installed by America, originally for military purposes. Russia took on this task with particular urgency because Ukraine relies on Starlink for battlefield Internet connectivity.
Iran’s rulers could now benefit from the expertise gained by the other two authoritarian states with which they have close, if wary, relations.
The regime’s second countermeasure is to cut the link between Starlink terminals and Musk’s satellites. This result can be achieved by direct interference with the required frequencies.
Taken together, these techniques were able to slow Starlink connections in Iran by 30% to over 80% during peak protest hours. Never before has Musk’s network been so successfully disrupted.
As the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia struggle to suppress the demonstrations, technology is as important as batons, bullets and tear gas. During previous outbreaks of unrest – most notably during mass rallies against rigged presidential elections in 2009 – the regime was caught by surprise by its young, networked and tech-savvy opponents.
Judging by their countermeasures against Starlink, Iranian leaders may be closing this knowledge gap and, at least for now, will be ahead in the technological arms race.
There is a way Musk can thwart the regime’s campaign against Iran’s Starlink terminals — but not yet. Every smartphone in the world manufactured since 2022 has the technology to connect directly to Musk’s satellites, without the need for a terminal, and use the billionaire’s constellation as a vast, invisible phone tower in the skies.
The regime could render 50,000 terminals unusable, but it could not achieve that result with tens of millions of smartphones in the hands of ordinary Iranians.
Currently, however, there is not enough satellite capacity to provide full Internet access through these “direct-to-cell” — or “D2C” — connections to 90 million Iranians. Moreover, D2C services are currently offered by local operators, not directly by Musk’s company, SpaceX.
So it’s not just that more satellites should be launched – a new business model should be designed to allow Iranians to connect to the Internet using a Starlink satellite. As Alimardani explains: “D2C satellite connectivity could reach millions of Iranians with the phones they already own. What’s missing is the policy framework, business model and political will to implement it.”
That day will undoubtedly come, allowing the protesters to regain their technological leadership, although it may take a year or two to provide full D2C Internet coverage for Iran, if they are prioritized. A more basic service that allows text connection could be operationally faster.
The only question is whether it will come too late to change the course of events in the current turmoil in Iran.
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