According to AccuWeather forecasters, the second of a one-two punch of winter storms in the Midwest and Northeast will turn out to be the most significant, bringing a host of weather hazards that can squeeze post-holiday travel.
“Across the Midwest and Great Lakes between Sunday and Monday, a strong storm will take shape,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. “The storm will bring risks for heavy snow, ice, strong storms, strong wind gusts and heavy rain.
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The storm is the same system that pelted California with heavy, flooding rains on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. As it crosses the country this weekend, it will hit moisture in the Gulf and strengthen quickly, eventually bringing impacts to more than two dozen states from Colorado to Maine.
A “total blizzard” may occur in parts of Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin
Travel impacts are expected to be strongest in the Great Lakes, where cooler air arriving Sunday night into Monday could bring snow and whiteout conditions after a brief wintry mix.
“There is a good chance that the storm will rapidly intensify and become a ‘bomb cyclone’ between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon over the Great Lakes,” Buckingham pointed out. “To meet the criteria for a bomb cyclone, the storm’s central pressure must drop by at least 24 millibars (0.71 inches of mercury) over a 24-hour period.”
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This rapid strengthening will lead to widespread snow and strong, gusty winds in places like Green Bay, Wis.; Marquette, Michigan; and Minneapolis, Minnesota.
While hilly terrain and heavily forested areas will keep the wind down a bit, open areas from southwestern Minnesota to central Ontario will get winds of at least 35 mph and snow, creating visibility of less than a quarter mile for several hours straight, which is the criteria for a blizzard.
“These conditions will make travel extremely difficult and dangerous, if not impossible, for some time,” Buckingham said.
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While accumulations will be hard to gauge due to the strong winds, totals of 6 inches or more will line up with some of the stronger winds from eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin and Michigan through adjacent parts of southern Canada.
Strong winds from the storm may bring down some trees. If utility lines are taken down, power outages can occur.
Ice, rain and strong storms south of the snow zone
South of the potential blizzard area, the storm will bring a complex mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and even the risk of severe thunderstorms.
“An icy corridor is expected from the storm across portions of the Northeast and New England,” Buckingham said. “The freezing area is currently expected to extend from northern and northeastern Pennsylvania into New York state and into New England late Sunday into Monday.”
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The area where sleet and freezing rain will fall for at least a short time is quite extensive, but the most significant freezing is expected near the border between Ontario and Quebec, Canada, including the capital city of Ottawa. There, ice accumulations of at least 0.25 inches — at least 6 mm — are possible, which could cause power outages and damage to trees.
Further south, in cities like Bangor and Portland, Maine; Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse, New York; Scranton, Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Vermont, even small amounts of freezing rain can turn roads and sidewalks into a sheet of ice to end the weekend and begin Monday, creating hazardous travel conditions.
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For larger cities from the Midwest to the East Coast, most will see cold, soaking rain for several hours, including Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and New York City.
Even just rain can cause post-holiday travel delays and hazardous travel from road spray on interstate highways, especially behind trailers. The heaviest rain will move across the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions during the day Sunday and Sunday evening, holding off through Sunday night and early Monday in the Northeast.
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Even further south, where warmer air will collide with an approaching cold front, there will be a rare chance in late December for severe thunderstorms.
Sunday through Sunday night, an area from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley may receive locally damaging hail and wind gusts. Any storm could also bring torrential rain, which in itself is dangerous for travelers.
Behind the storm: Strong winds from the Arctic
While impacts will vary greatly from region to region, there are two aspects of the storm that will hit everyone: the strong winds and cold air that will follow early in the new week.
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Due to the storm’s likely designation as a bomb cyclone, rapid changes in pressure around the center of the storm will result in an extensive area of wind, even without precipitation, from the Midwest to the Atlantic seaboard. Widespread wind gusts of 40-60 mph are forecast and could wreak havoc on air travel at major airports, including Chicago-O’Hare on Monday, and New York City-area airports through Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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