00:00 scratch
We have some breaking news breaking the wire right now. We have PCE, personal consumption expenditures in line with estimates. This is for September, remember, so it’s up 3/10 of 1% month-over-month, 2.8% year-over-year. If you strip out volatile food and energy costs, you’ll get a 2/10 percent increase again, right in line with estimates. And by the way, in line with what the previous month’s growth had shown. So beautiful
00:26 scratch
stable on the inflation front from a PCE perspective. We also have personal income and expenses. and again, as a reminder, these are September numbers due to the government shutdown. Personal income increases by 4/10 of 1%. This is slightly better growth than anticipated. Personal spending increased by 3/10 of 1%. So that’s all the September data coming to us from the government from the BLS. We also have the University of Michigan feel. and this is a much newer one
00:56 scratch
number. This is the preliminary reading for December. That came in slightly better than expected, with the headline number coming in at 53.3, 52 being what economists had expected on average. Current conditions in UMich slightly weaker than expected at 50.7. um slightly better expectations. Um so interesting here, we’re also seeing a moderation in inflation expectations, both one year and five to 10 years out. So put all that together, Michigan sentiment numbers
1:23 scratch
looks relatively positive here. We see that the major US averages are a little higher on that, but we want to get a little more detail on what we’re seeing in the markets today, both in reaction to that and more broadly. So for that, we go to our markets editor, Jared Blikre for more.
1:40 a.m Jared Blikre
Thank you, Julie. Yes, it looks like inflation is looking somewhat benign now. And to be fair, when we got those CPI figures for September, what was it a month ago? We could figure out what these morning numbers were. However, the consumer sentiment numbers from Michigan, University of Michigan, as you said, are new, and any price reaction that we have, which seems to be bullish right now, more likely because of that and the inflationary component of it, which
2:02 Jared Blikre
it is consumer inflationary expectations that appear to be somewhat under control, at least not out of control. And here we see the Dow Industrials up about 219 points on the day, up 45 basis points or about half of 1%. Let’s also check the Nasdaq. Uh, also at the highs, it looks like it’s just coming off that early high it had after the open this morning, and the S&P 500, very similar to the Dow, is up about 4/10ths of 1% there. I will check
2:29 Jared Blikre
The Russell 2000 is in the red today after hitting its first October high. And also let’s check on microcast because they got a record yesterday too. They were in the green early, they’re slightly in the red now, but like I said, this is the time of year when volatility goes down. Here is the VIX. You can see it was briefly green there, but lower volatility is good. so you want to see that in red, that means higher stocks usually. And let’s check
2:52 Jared Blikre
on the bond market, which so far has not done much. Just a fraction of a basis point higher, so not much change there. 10 years at 4.11, and then the 30 years, that is 4.77%. That’s about a basis point, not a huge amount. I also like to check the US dollar, I’m barely moving there. Lots of chops. So let’s check out the sector action. Right before the report, guess what? We look pretty similar right now. Communication services was the leader then, with technology in second place.
3:15 Jared Blikre
And this is the state right now. Then you increased the materials by about 7/10 percent, energy and discretionary consumer, all performing. So many of the cyclical sectors are in the green here, although industrials seem to be just kind of water. The only sector in the red is utilities. This is a decrease of about 2/10 of 1%. And let’s take a look and see what Nasdaq is doing. After a nice day for Nvidia yesterday, I think it’s up about 1 or 2%. Slightly in the red today, but me
3:40 Jared Blikre
said Communications Services was leading. This is a sector where you have Alphabet, Google, up 1% here and meta up about two-thirds of 1%. And I want to show you that a lot of dark green is what happens in semiconductors. So let’s go over and see there’s Nvidia, which is slightly down, but for the rest, we’ve got Intel up almost 5%, Micron up over 4%, Western Digital, Lumentum, they’re up over 3%. So some nice dark green spaces there. and
4:06 a.m Jared Blikre
quite a similar story in software, not quite as dark green, but still a strong day for Salesforce. That is by 3 and a half percent, Adobe by 4 percent. And I would like to check about crypto as well because it can sometimes be sensitive to inflation and sometimes it reacts to some of these reports. Here is Bitcoin down for the day, 1.79%. I don’t see much reaction here. So a bit red to leave you here Julie, but not a huge move from those reports.
4:32 scratch
Jared, thank you very much. Appreciate it.