Elon Musk promises a risky launch after the sixth Starship failure

When you buy through our articles links, Future and its syndication partners can earn commissions.

This article was originally published The conversation. The publication contributed to the Space.com article Expert voices: OP-ED and insights;

It was the ninth Rocket flight and the third catastrophic failure in a row, only this year.

Is this exactly what we should expect from the ship itself that some expect to take people further than we have ever been in the solar system? Or maybe this failure shows a deeper concern in the wider program?

Decade of development

The Starship SpaceX space technology company SpaceX has been developing for more than a decade and has experienced many of its overall design and goals iterations.

The Starship concept is based on the SpaceX Raptor engines that will be used in a multilevel system. The multilevel rocket system often has two or three separate blocks with their motor and fuel supplies. It is especially important to leave the Earth’s orbit and travel to the moon, Mars and beyond.

Using Starship, the main factor is the ability to land and reuse the huge amount of rocket stages over and over again. Falcon 9 vehicles that used this model were fantastically successful.

The initial Starship tests began in 2018, with two low -height flights showing early success. Subsequent flights have faced many challenges with four complete failures now, two partial failures and three successes.

Just two days ago, during the last unsuccessful attempt, I watched with more than 200 other space industry experts at the Australian space summit at Sydney. The broadcast directly on the giant screen, the launching caused an excited sound – which soon turned into reserved murders.

Of course, it is difficult to design and launch a missile, so you have to expect failures. However, the third catastrophic failure in six months requires a pause to reflect.

In this particular test flight, as Starship found itself for the atmospheric re -entrance, one of its 13 engines was unable to ignite. Soon the explosion amplifier appeared, which is completely lost in control. The rocket eventually stood out above the Indian Ocean, which tons of garbage will now call home.

Polluted land for space

We do not know the exact financial costs of each test flight. But in the past, Musk said it was about $ 50-100 million.

The exact environmental costs and its repeated failures are even harder to assess.

For example, a failed test flight in 2023 Left the city of Port Isabel, Texas near the launch site, trembling and covered with a thick cloud of dirt. Explosive missile debris crushed cars. Residents told the New York Times that they were scared. They also had to clear the mess from the flight.

Then, 2024. In September, SpaceX was punished by the US Environmental Protection Agency and Texas Environmental Quality Commission 14 separate incidents from 2022, when the launch facilities released contaminated water on Texas water roads. Musk denied these statements.

In the same month, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) offered a fine of $ 633,009 for the civilian penalty. This was to motivate the use of an unconfirmed launch control room and other violations in 2023. Musk also denied these statements and threatened to ruin the FAA for “excess regulation”.

It is unclear whether this claim has ever been filed.

January and March this year. Two other unsuccessful launchers began to raine rocket debris through the Caribbean Sea and disrupted hundreds of commercial flights, including 80, which had to be targeted and more than 400 demanding a deferred rise to make sure they would enter safe airspace.

The success of various space programs

Until last year, FAA allowed SpaceX to try up to five Starship starts a year. This number was increased to 25 this month.

Many can go wrong when starting a vehicle into space. And we need to go a long way until we can properly evaluate whether Starship has successfully achieved its mission goals.

However, we can look at previous programs to understand the typical success percentages visible in various missile programs.

The Saturn V Rocket, the Apollo era work horse, had a total of 13 launches that had only one partial failure. He had three full Earth trials before the flight.

The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket had more than 478 successful launch, only two flight failures, one partial failure and one destruction before the flight.

The Orbital Sciences Corporation (later Orbital Akšt and Northrop Grumman) has started an Antares Rocket 18 times in total with one failure.

The Soyuz rocket, originally designed in the 1960s, was released 32 times, with two failures.

Related stories

– Star Ship in Space: See wonderful photos from SpaceX Megarocket Flight 9 Test Mission

—Faa requires

– SpaceX reveals why his Starship Flight 8 ship exploded, failure was a “flash” in Rocket engines

There is no precautionary sign

Of course, we cannot correctly compare all other missiles with Starship. Its goals are certainly new as a reusable heavy -class rocket.

However, this latest failure raises several questions. Will the Starship program ever see success – and if so, when? And what are our boundaries of tolerance as a public land pollution to achieve the goal of space?

For the key program that moves so fast, creating new and sophisticated technologies and experiencing some repeated failures, many people can now expect caution. But musk has other plans.

Shortly after the latest Starship failure, he announced X (formerly Twitter) that other test flights would take faster pace: every three to four weeks.

This article is repeatedly published from The conversation According to the Creative Commons license. Read Original article;