CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) — Guineans are voting Sunday to elect a new president in the country’s first election since a 2021 coup, as analysts say a weakened opposition will lead to a likely victory for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.
Sunday’s election is the culmination of a transition process that began four years ago after Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Condé. The junta leader has cracked down on the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him without a major opposition among the eight other candidates in the race.
Despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources – including as the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, used to produce aluminum – more than half of its 15 million people face record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Programme.
“This vote is the hope of young people, especially for us unemployed people,” said Idrissa Camara, an 18-year-old from Conakry who said he has been unemployed since graduating from university five years ago. “I am forced to do jobs to survive. I hope this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea,” he added.
The election is being held under a new constitution that lifted the ban on military leaders running and extended the presidential term from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a referendum in September, despite opposition parties calling on voters to boycott it.
The vote is the latest such poll among African countries that have seen a rise in coups in recent years. At least 10 countries on the young continent have faced off against soldiers who seized power by force after accusing elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security for citizens.
“These elections will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinean political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favorite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been marginalized and the Directorate General of Elections, the body that oversees the presidential election, is under government supervision,” he added.
In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say that since the coup, Guinea has seen civil society leaders silenced, critics kidnapped and the media censored. More than 50 political parties were dissolved last year in a move authorities said was to “clear the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.
Security was tight in Conakry and elsewhere in Guinea, with nearly 12,000 police officers from the security forces mobilized and checkpoints set up along major roads. Authorities said on Saturday that security forces had “neutralized” an armed group with “subversive intentions that threaten national security” after gunshots were heard in the Sonfonia neighborhood of Conakry.
At polling stations, long queues of mostly young voters waited to cast their ballots as police officers closely monitored the process.
A total of nine candidates are contesting the election, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of Guinea’s Democratic Front party, who was education minister under Condé.
Two opposition candidates, former prime minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were ruled out on technical grounds, while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure were forced into exile.
While Baldé focused his campaign on promises of government reform, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Doumbouya built his campaign around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.
The junta’s most important project was the Simandou iron ore project, a 75 percent Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit, which began production last month after decades of delays.
Authorities say a national development plan linked to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
“In four years, he (Doumbouya) connected the youth of Guinea to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image in the capital Conakry, as he cited digital skills training programs implemented by the authorities.
About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots in about 24,000 polling stations across the country, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote.
In Conakry, student Issatou Bah, 22, said he was still undecided about voting in the election.
“This is the third time I am voting in Guinea, hoping that things will change. But nothing has changed,” Bah said, adding that he hoped the elections would improve “this country that has everything but is struggling to take off.”