Stock markets went into a global sell-off this morning as world leaders in Davos awoke to news that US President Trump had written to Norway’s prime minister to say his repeated threats to take over Greenland were based on his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
“Given that your Country has decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize … I no longer feel compelled to think only of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but now I can think of what is good and right for the United States of America,” said Trump’s message to Jonas Gahr Støre. “The world is not safe unless we have complete and total control over Greenland.”
The Norwegian government has no control over how the Nobel Committee awards its prizes. Greenland is a territory of Denmark, not Norway.
Last night, Trump again posted on social media: “NATO has been telling Denmark for 20 years that ‘you must remove the Russian threat from Greenland.’ Unfortunately, Denmark could not do anything about it. Now is the time and it will be done!!!”
Traders, dismayed by the prospect of a new trade war between the US and Europe, reacted by cutting stocks around the world.
S&P 500 futures fell 1.12% this morning – an unusually steep decline. The last session closed flat. (U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day) The STOXX Europe 600 was down 1.25 percent in early trading and Britain’s FTSE 100 was down 0.49 percent before midday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.65 percent. China’s CSI 300 was flat. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.42%. Bitcoin fell to $93,000. The only major national index to have a good day was South Korea, where the KOSPI rose 1.32%.
Gold, the traditional safe-haven investment, hit a new record high of $4,673.4 on the Comex continuous contract.
Wall Street analysts generally agree that President Trump’s repeated threats to force Denmark to “give back” Greenland and impose an escalating set of trade tariffs on the UK and the EU if those countries do not comply are damaging for stocks globally. They differ only in their assessment of how bad it will get.
Carsten Brzeski and Bert Colijn of ING told clients: “Overall, we can only reiterate our previous estimates that additional 25% tariffs would likely reduce European GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points. However, this model-based estimate fails to capture the full impact of new uncertainty and geopolitical tensions as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions.”
They also warned: “As has happened before, it is unclear how this will work, as there has been no official communication from the White House, only Trump’s announcement on social media.”