By Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal
BANGKOK, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Thai voters turned out in large numbers on Sunday for a general election defined by a battle between conservative, progressive and populist camps, with no party winning a clear majority and prolonging the specter of political instability.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has set the stage for snap elections in mid-December amid a fierce border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, in what analysts said was a timed move by the conservative leader to take advantage of rising nationalism.
At the time, he had been in power for less than 100 days, taking over after the ouster of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the populist Pheu Thai party over the Cambodian crisis.
Pheu Thai, backed by billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who went to jail himself just days after his daughter’s removal, is muted but not ruled out, according to polls.
“I did my best,” Anutin told reporters after casting his vote in his party’s stronghold of Bhumjaithai in the city of Buriram, northeast of Bangkok. “We hope people will trust us.”
But the progressive People’s Party, with its message of structural change and reforms for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, led most opinion polls during the campaign season.
“This election is about whether Thailand will break out of the rut, whether Thailand will break out of its political instability and economic crisis that has persisted,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
“My preliminary conclusion, I’m afraid to say, is that it will not erupt.”
A steady stream of voters poured into Bangkok’s polling stations in the hours after polls opened, including Suwat Kiatsuwan, a 44-year-old company employee.
“I don’t want the same people anymore,” he said, after casting his vote. “If we vote the same as before, nothing will change. We weren’t going anywhere.”
Polls closed at 17:00 local time (1000 GMT) and preliminary results were expected within hours.
PRE-ELECTION SURVEY
Although he took the fight to Anutin and Pheu Thai’s Bhumjaithai Party, the People’s Party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority on its own – increasing the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessor.
In a poll conducted in the final week of the campaign that was released on Sunday, the National Institute for Development Administration estimated that Bhumjaithai would win between 140 and 150 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, ahead of 125-135 for the People’s Party.
Move Forward, the forerunner of the People’s Party, won the last election in 2023 only to be blocked from forming a government by a military-appointed Senate and conservative MPs, opening the door for Pheu Thai to take over.
This long-running struggle between the powerful royalist-conservative establishment and popular democratic movements has created prolonged periods of uncertainty, punctuated by street protests, bouts of violence and military coups.
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM
Thai voters will also be asked during the vote to decide whether a new constitution should replace a 2017 charter, a military-backed document that critics say concentrates power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful senate that is elected through an indirect selection process with limited public participation.
Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, with most changes followed by military coups.
If voters back a new national charter, the new government and lawmakers can begin the amendment process in parliament with two more referendums needed to adopt a new constitution.
“I think the party that wins the next election will have a huge influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether we move away from the junta-drafted constitution or not,” said Napon Jatusripitak of Bangkok-based think tank Thailand Future.
DIFFERENT STRATEGIES
Bhumjaithai’s rise amid rising nationalism unleashed by the Thai-Cambodian conflict – alongside the decline of Pheu Thai after its woes last year – has sparked a series of defections and reshaped political battlegrounds, including vote-rich agrarian belts.
Some political parties have responded by drawing into their camps well-known local figures, including those from rival groups, with the aim of capturing networks of personal loyalty that are essential to winning in the hinterland.
The reform-minded People’s Party has also changed its playbook, watering down the progressive movement’s anti-establishment stance and bringing in outside talent to convince voters it has what it takes to run a government.
Former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has thrown himself into the mix, leveraging his personal appeal to revive his once-moribund Democratic Party, which could emerge as a key force in post-election coalition talks.
(Adilyal reported with Thremones, while in Wessaar, editing with Raju Opalicannin).