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Investors would be wise to be vigilant for the next few months due to negative market surprises, taking into account the updated shares in the US and China’s thawing thaw.
They just got what the US lost in their Triple-A credit rating. Moody reduced the US government late Friday by blaming the major fiscal shortcomings and raising interest costs. On Monday, the shares on Monday sold a lot because the 10 -year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose above 4.5%.
Another market surprise lying in weeds is the third quarter -income season, which usually begins in mid -October. The arguments need to think that the overall impact of the rates will be the most difficult in the third quarter, which is very excited by amazing analysts who continue to expect Buffper companies.
“I think between tariffs and when they actually reached their earnings,” Adam Parker, founder of Trivary Research, told Yahoo Finance opening Podcast (see video above or listen below). “So I suspect it is more likely that the third quarter rooms that will slightly soften.”
Parker organized the main role of US stock strategist in Sanford Bernstein and Morgan Stanley, before that in 2021. Establishing a three -variable studies in early February before the slide began in a closely monitored group.
Parker added about earnings that “you can get a little wave where not everyone at the same time misses. But I currently think that Q2 numbers are probably the right one, but the third and fourth quarter numbers are actually inserted into some sectors taller than conventional sectors [earnings]”.
Read more: How to protect your money during the economic turmoil, the stock market volatility
In the second quarter, the season, which will soon end, led investors to a false sense of security for tariff profits. The rates did not initially feel the company until the current quarter, and then they will be more felt in the third quarter if they remain at the current level.
According to FACTSET, about 78% of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) reported a positive one -campaign (EPS) surprise in the first quarter, exceeding the five -year average. The S&P 500 company exceeds the EPS ratings with about 8.5%results in the first quarter compared to the five -year average compared to 8.5%.
