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A powerful coastal storm is expected to develop this weekend, and forecasters say its track will determine whether New York City sees accumulating snow or largely avoids impacts, with the highest confidence for a system forming off the Carolinas.
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FOX 5 THE MMeteorologist Mike Woods warns that a slight move closer to the coast could bring a major nor’easter, while a track farther offshore would limit snowfall for much of the tri-state area.
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The storm could quickly turn into a bomb cyclone, a rare intensification process that can produce heavy snow, damaging winds and dangerous travel conditions as Arctic air remains stuck over the Northeast.
NEW YORK CITY – More wintry weather could be on the way as forecasters watch for a potential weekend snowstorm that could strengthen into a major nor’easter.
What we know
The National Weather Service (NWS) says confidence is growing that a powerful coastal storm will develop later this week, with the potential to bring snow, strong winds and bitter cold to the New York area.
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However, small changes in the storm’s track could make a big difference in who sees snow pile up — and how much. Here’s the latest on the storm.
Winter storm in New York this weekend
what they say
FOX 5 THE MMeteorologist Mike Woods says the region needs to keep a close eye on the storm.
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“If it’s a little further offshore, we’ll have less of an impact,” Woods said. “But if it’s a little closer to us, we could have a major nor’easter on our hands.”
Why should you care
With a cold weather advisory in effect due to already blocked arctic air, conditions could support snow in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
The cold weather continues on Wednesday. Highs will only be in the low to mid 20s, but with the wind, the “warmest” it will feel is in the lower to mid-teens.
Will it snow this weekend?
what they say
FOX 5 NOMeteorologist Mike Woods says the region needs to keep a close eye on the storm.
“If it’s a little further offshore, we’ll have less of an impact,” Woods said. “But if it’s a little closer to us, we could have a major nor’easter on our hands.”
You deeper
Woods says some forecast models currently show snow reaching parts of the tri-state area, particularly the Jersey Shore and the east end of Long Island, late Saturday into Sunday.
There is greater confidence that coastal areas of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia will see winter impacts as areas of low pressure form along the southeast coast. (FOX Weather)
Other scenarios keep the storm further offshore, limiting the impact on the city. Meteorologists point out that the exact path of the storm remains uncertain. Even a change of 50 to 100 miles could change precipitation types, snowfall totals, or whether some areas see little or no snow.
Easter possibly this weekend: When will it snow?
Forecast guides suggest snow could start as early as Friday evening in parts of the Southeast before spreading north.
The setup includes very cold air already existing in the northeast, combined with a developing coastal storm that could pull moisture north. Woods notes that temperatures will trend lower over the next few days, not warmer.
Possible Easter scenarios
“We have several shots of arctic air coming through,” he said. “That’s why temperatures are actually falling, not rising.”
Wind chill advisories are already in place for parts of the region, with similar temperatures dropping below zero in some areas.
What is a winter bomb cyclone?
FOX Weather says the developing storm has a high probability of rapidly intensifying, a process known as “bombardment,” which could turn it into a bomb cyclone. Forecast models suggest the storm’s central pressure could drop dramatically as it moves offshore, a sign of rapid strengthening.
However, where this intensification occurs remains uncertain. Meteorologists point out that the storm is still a few days away, and several scenarios remain on the table.
What is a bomb cyclone?
A bomb cyclone forms through a process called bombogenesis, which occurs when a storm’s central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours, according to FOX Weather.
Why is it so cold and snowy?
The background story
Forecasters say a pronounced decline in the jet stream is strengthening cold air across much of the eastern United States as it directs the storm further south before turning north.
HOBOKEN, NJ – JANUARY 26: Chunks of ice float in the Hudson River in front of the Midtown Manhattan skyline and the Empire State Building in New York on January 26, 2026 in Hoboken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
A strong upper-level disturbance is expected to become embedded in the jet stream later this week, helping to trigger the development of low pressure off the East Coast.
The Lower Manhattan skyline and the Brooklyn Bridge are seen in the background as a woman walks through the snow in the Brooklyn borough of New York on January 26, 2026. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
With cold air already in place, this combination increases the risk of snow if the storm gets close enough to the region.
What we don’t know
Forecasters say updates over the next few days will be critical in determining the storm’s impact on New York City and the surrounding area.
The biggest question remains the storm’s path after it moves through the Carolinas, with forecast models split on whether it will track far enough north to bring another weekend of snow to the Northeast.
5 day forecast
Wednesday: Bitter cold but dry. Arctic air remains in place with sunshine and strong wind chills, making it feel well below freezing in the tri-state area.
Thursday: Cold continues with increasing clouds. No precipitation is expected, but cold air sets the stage for potential weekend impacts.
Friday: Clouds are increasing as a coastal storm begins to organize off the southeast coast. Snow develops in parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia by Friday evening. Conditions remain cold locally, with precipitation still uncertain for New York.
Saturday: The storm system is moving north along the East Coast. Snow is possible in parts of New Jersey, Long Island and coastal areas depending on the storm’s track. New York City remains in a “wait and see” zone.
Sunday: Potential for persistent snow, wind and cold if the storm moves closer to the coast. A more distant offshore track would limit impacts, while a closer track could bring a northeaster with strong winds and accumulating snow.
Live FOX Weather Updates
Stay in front of the snow with FOX 5’s meteorologists LIVE on FOX LOCAL. We’re broadcasting around-the-clock coverage with the latest forecasts, snow potential and preparedness tips — before the storm and throughout the weekend. Download FOX LOCAL for 24/7 weather coverage on smart TV and mobile devices.
Source
This report is based on information from the NWS, FOX 5 NY’s Mike Woods and FOX Weather.