Revenue from President Trump’s tariffs fell in November, but the president’s oft-made promises about what he would do with the money continued apace.
By Yahoo Finance’s count, the president has floated at least nine different ideas for how the tariff money could be used starting with the 2024 campaign.
It’s a list of promises that range from sending Americans $2,000 in tariff dividend checks to paying for the tax cuts Republicans enacted this summer.
Trump reminded the crowd at a Pennsylvania rally this week exactly how he feels about tariffs, saying the word: “I like it more than any other word in the dictionary.” He only relegated it behind other words like religion and family, he said, at the behest of “fake news.”
President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks on the economy at the Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania on December 9. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP via Getty Images) ·ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images
However, the picture for tariff revenue has become considerably murkier in recent weeks after the president appealed to Americans’ concerns about affordability and raised some tariffs on items such as coffee, oranges and cocoa, which have seen price increases.
That led to a drop in monthly tariff revenue from $31.35 billion received in October to $30.76 billion last month, the first decline since Trump began implementing his historic second-term obligations.
And Trump’s promises, of course, also come with a looming Supreme Court decision that could not only invalidate most of the new tariffs, but even force him to issue up to $100 billion in refunds.
Last week, the administration announced a $12 billion bailout fund for farmers. That money “wouldn’t be possible without tariffs,” the president said.
Scott Lincicome, an economist at the Cato Institute, was quick to point out four additional things Trump has promised to pay tariffs on.
In addition to farm bailouts, dividend checks and tax cuts, Lincicome noted Trump’s promise to pay down the national debt with tariffs and his occasional suggestion that tariffs could lead to the elimination of income taxes.
One respondent quickly pointed to a sixth example: a Trump campaign promise to pay for tariff-enhanced child care.
He was asked during an event last September at the Economic Club of New York about his ideas for making child care more affordable.
“The kind of numbers I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels they’re not used to,” he replied, “are way higher than any numbers we’re talking about, including child care.”
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Economic Club of New York on September 5, 2024 in New York. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith) ·THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
A review of Trump’s campaign promises and other proposals since taking office reveals even more examples, including at the same Economic Club of New York event.
“With all this money that’s going to be taken in through tariffs and other smart things … we’re going to have the biggest sovereign wealth fund of all,” he said, suggesting another use for the money.
More recently, Trump floated the idea of a “victory fund” for Ukraine, funded by new tariffs on China for its purchases of Russian oil.
His administration also used tariff money to keep the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) afloat during the government shutdown with a $300 million infusion.
The November receipts brought total fare revenue collected this calendar year to about $236.16 billion a month later.
But almost all of Trump’s ideas come with an even higher price tag, meaning he’s unlikely to pay for almost any of them with tariff revenue alone.
As one example, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently estimated that a round of tariff dividend checks could cost as much as $600 billion and take about two years to pay off using only tariff revenue.
Activists pose for photos outside the Supreme Court in November as the high court heard arguments on the legality of the Trump administration’s tariffs. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) ·Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
“Under almost any design option, sending $2,000 in payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit,” the Fiscal Foundation added in its own analysis. “A better way to provide relief from the tariff burden would be to eliminate tariffs.”
Earlier this year, the president also suggested the tariffs meant he could balance the budget now.
But that seems unlikely, and individual income taxes also probably aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The value of those taxes so far this calendar year — as a point of comparison with the $236 billion tariff — is more than 10 times that, according to the Treasury Department, at more than $2.5 trillion.
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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