DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) — Moving between damp basements and muddy ditches to avoid constant Russian attacks in the nearly 4-year war, exhausted Ukrainian soldiers say their motivation is fueled by the fact that they are fighting for a higher cause: defending their homeland.
But as negotiators try to hammer out a peace deal, troops also believe Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine — either now or with a new army in a few years — no matter what kind of deal is struck.
And they also say Kiev needs to maintain a sizable army to protect its 800-mile (nearly 1,300-kilometer) front line.
“Ukraine’s armed forces are now the main barrier between the peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and our evil neighbor,” said a 40-year-old artilleryman who spoke to The Associated Press near the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. He identified himself only by his call sign “Kelt”, in accordance with military protocol and on the condition that his exact location not be revealed.
Soldiers have expressed strong doubts that Moscow can be trusted to honor any peace deal. Without substantial security guarantees, such as NATO membership for Ukraine, they and military analysts believe another Russian invasion with new troops and equipment is inevitable.
Seeing future Russian threats
From a dark, mud-walled trench where he shelters to avoid the buzz of enemy drones, Kelt fears that any peace will be short-lived.
“This truce will be short-term, to restore Russian forces – for about three or five years – and they will come back,” said the former furniture salesman from Kiev, as the sound of artillery echoed around him.
Serhii Filimonov, commander of Da Vinci’s Wolves battalion, worried that a deal would give Russia everything it needs to strike again.
“I think it would be nice for the Russians to end the war, lift the sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again,” he said. “I don’t think there can be peace until Russia is destroyed or at least the leadership is changed.”
Ukraine’s excessive labor force
Filimonov described how Russian troops briefly entered the eastern city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region, but were pushed back. Its brigade had managed to hold its portion of the defensive line, but was often let down by neighboring units filled with inexperienced recruits.
The Kremlin boasted on Monday that Russian troops had captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Paris that fighting was still ongoing.
A major breakthrough by Russian forces will depend on Ukraine’s ability to increase and sustain its troop numbers, said US military analyst and academic Rob Lee.
“Ukraine has no manpower, no reserves,” he said. “All it takes is one Ukrainian brigade to really fight, and then Russia can advance.”
Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser, told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions on the front line were made up of only 20 fighters instead of the usual 400-800.
Even though Ukraine can mobilize up to 30,000 conscripts a month, many of them find a way to escape service or prove unable to replace front-line troops.
Key sites are still preserved
However, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold on to places like Pokrovsk, as well as Kupiansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region – two frontline places that Russia has been trying to capture for over a year, said Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles UAV Brigade fighting in the area.
Russia has poured tens of thousands of troops into the cities, he said, noting that the failure to capture them “testifies to the high motivation and resilience of the Ukrainian military.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that the fighting will not stop unless Ukraine withdraws troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions – the four provinces that Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022. Russian troops occupy only half of Zaporizhia and Kherson and two-thirds of Donetsk.
A draft US-Russia peace plan called for Ukraine’s military to be limited and for Kiev’s forces to effectively withdraw from the rest of the Donetsk region. Zelenskyy has since said that a later revised version could be “workable”, but it is unclear what will be in the final document.
Lee, who regularly visits the front, said Russia is advancing at a faster pace in 2025 than the previous year, but it is not a given that Moscow will capture the remaining third of the Donetsk region in 2026.
“Wherever Russia advances, Ukraine prioritizes defenses (and) they can hold for a long time, but (then) Russia advanced in other directions,” Lee said, describing Moscow’s progress through Donetsk, pushing in multiple directions simultaneously.
Ukraine will still need Western aid
From his muddy trench, Kelt ridiculed the proposal to reduce the size of Ukraine’s military, saying it amounted to making it easier for Russia to “kill you” later than now.
But sustaining an army of Ukraine’s current size of just over 1 million would be nearly impossible without continued Western support. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has spent almost all of its tax revenue on feeding, clothing, housing and arming its military. The rest of its spending—for health, social programs, education, pensions, and energy—was financed by Western grants and loans.
The European Union has allocated $50 billion in aid from 2024 to 2027 as part of the Ukraine Facilitation Program, but Kiev will need $83.4 billion for the military and $52 billion for the rest of state spending for 2026 and 2027, said Glib Buriak, associate professor of economics at Concordia Ukrainian-American University.
Ukraine’s future finances — including its ability to maintain a military — depend on what the peace plan includes regarding Russia’s frozen assets, Buriak said, stressing the risk of a drop in aid if the war ends.
“How they are managed will determine Ukraine’s financial situation in the coming years,” he said.
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Yehor Konovalov contributed reporting.