By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices likely rose the most in 1-1/2 years in the year to November, economists predicted, underscoring worsening affordability challenges facing Americans that were partly blamed on import tariffs.
The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release month-over-month changes when it releases its delayed November consumer price index report on Tuesday, after the 43-day government shutdown prevented October data collection. The October CPI release was canceled because price data could not be collected retrospectively.
The longest shutdown in history also affected labor market data, with the government failing to release the unemployment rate for October for the first time.
But the BLS will publish annual rates for the CPI and the so-called core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components.
The agency publishes numerous indices in addition to the broad CPI and the core CPI. Those derived from data that do not need to be physically collected will be available, though the BLS said it expected “the number of publishable indices to be small.”
The statistics agency said it was “unable to provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations”. Economists have advised viewing the CPI and its components on a year-over-year basis or the bimonthly change.
“Progress in reducing inflation has stalled,” said Andy Schneider, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “This largely reflects companies in goods-producing sectors passing on tariff costs into prices.”
CPI likely rose 3.1 percent year-on-year in November, which would be the biggest gain since May 2024, a Reuters poll of economists estimated. CPI rose 3.0% in the 12 months to September.
But the CPI could come in below expectations as data collection was delayed at the end of the month when retailers offered discounts for the holiday season. This could be evident in lower prices for goods such as furniture and leisure goods.
“This year’s November CPI may capture a period that reflects more of the discounting of the holiday season than the typical November, which would reflect average prices over the entire month,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “If there is abnormal weakness in commodity prices from November, there could be a larger rebound in these components in December.”
President Donald Trump’s high import duties have raised prices for many goods, although the pass-through of tariffs has been gradual as businesses worked through inventories built up before trade policy tightened and also absorbed some of the duties, evident in the moderate rise in new car prices.