As the deadline the Lebanese government has set for disarming Hezbollah in the country’s south approaches, the group insists it will not give up its weapons.
The Lebanese cabinet tasked the military in August with formulating a plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025, in line with a plan presented by the United States.
Hezbollah was quick to reject the decree, calling it a “grave sin” and promising to treat him “as if it didn’t exist”.
In September, the Lebanese army presented a phased approach until the disarmament of Hezbollah, starting in the south of the country up to the Litani River, 28 km (17 miles) from the border with Israel and moving north to the capital, Beirut, and then nationwide.
Thursday marks the deadline for completing the first phase. But a defiant Hezbollah has rejected efforts to disarm it, as called for by a US-Israeli plan at a time when Israel leads daily airstrikes it is Lebanon.
“Demanding exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and America is imposing its will on Lebanon, stripping it of power, means you are not working in the interest of Lebanon, but rather in the interest of what Israel wants,” Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said this week.
Israeli strikes
While the debate inside Lebanon rages over the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, Israeli attacks against the country have not let up.
On Wednesday, Israeli forces bombed several villages in southern Lebanon and blew up the last undamaged house in the border town of Marwahin, according to the official National News Agency.
Israeli strikes were not limited south of the Litani River. In November, Israel bombed Beirut and killed Hezbollah’s top commander, Haytham Tabtabai.
Last week, an Israeli attack killed three peopleincluding a Lebanese army officer, in the coastal city of Sidon, north of Litani.
Beyond the airstrikes and near constant violations of Lebanon’s airspace by surveillance drones, the noise of which can often be heard in Beirut, Israel continues to occupy five points inside Lebanon.
Israel has also prevented the rebuilding of villages it destroyed in last year’s war, regularly carrying out attacks against the construction sector in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah says that when Israel stops its attacks, it is ready to discuss a national defense strategy for Lebanon that would include the group’s weapons.
arguments
Hezbollah’s opponents argue that the group has failed to deter Israeli attacks, so its weapons only invite additional strikes without providing a meaningful defense.
They also say that the Shia Muslim party should not be able to make war and peace decisions for the entire multi-religious country on its own, and that meaningful state-building cannot happen with an independent armed force that does not answer to the government.
Critics also point to Hezbollah’s alliance with Iran, accusing the group of serving as a tool for Tehran. “axis of resistance” rather than promoting Lebanon’s interests.
However, Hezbollah says that without its resistance, Israel could occupy and build settlements in southern Lebanon, with the ill-equipped Lebanese army unable to fight.
The United States, Israel’s closest ally, is the main supplier of weapons to the Lebanese army. In September, US special envoy Tom Barrack admitted that Washington does not support the Lebanese armed forces to confront Israel.
“We don’t want to arm them … so they can fight Israel. I don’t think so,” Barrack said. “So you arm them so they can fight their own people, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is our enemy. Iran is our enemy.”
Hezbollah also calls Israel an expansionist entity that does not need an excuse to attack Lebanon, pointing to the situation in Syria, where Israeli forces have been expanding his occupation beyond the Golan Heights without any provocation.
Hezbollah supporters note that Israeli violations against Lebanon date back to 1948 due to the state’s neglect of the south — long before the group was founded in 1982.
History
Founded during the Lebanese Civil War and Israel’s invasion of the country with the help of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah has grown in recent decades from a ragtag militia to a regional power.
Using guerilla warfare tactics, he forced Israel to withdraw of southern Lebanon in 2000, in what was seen as a rare military victory for an Arab side in the history of the conflict.
It then fought Israel to a stalemate in an all-out war in 2006, thwarting Israeli goals of dismantling or disarming the group.
In subsequent years, Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian war, helping the Syrian government of former President Bashar al-Assad to retake large parts of the country from opposition fighters.
It also sent military advisers to help Iran-backed groups in Iraq fight ISIL (ISIS).
Domestically, Hezbollah has exerted great influence over the Lebanese government since 2006, managed to maintain a strong parliamentary bloc with its allies, and elevated individuals close to the group to key positions.
But it all came crashing down for Hezbollah last year. The group opened a “support front” to support Hamas after the outbreak of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.
For months, the violence was largely confined to the Lebanon-Israel border region. However, in September 2024, Israel launched an offensive across the country, dealing painful blows to Hezbollah.
Israeli forces killed most of the group’s top political and military leaders, including its chief Hassan Nasrallahwhich achieved iconic status for Hezbollah followers after the 2000 victory and the 2006 war.
The conflict has also seen Israel systematically destroy border towns, forcing long-term depopulation of the area, a campaign some analysts have likened to ethnic cleansing.
The war has killed thousands and displaced millions who have spent more than two months away from their homes, many sheltering in schools and other public buildings.
The war ended with a cease-fire that Israel ignored and Hezbollah respected, except for a single attack on an Israeli position in December 2024.
dangers
Hezbollah – beleaguered, bleeding domestic allies and facing a de facto unilateral ceasefire and continued Israeli attacks – is now at a crossroads.
Lebanese officials say the army is making progress in completing the first phase of the disarmament plan. But Hezbollah says it will not surrender its weapons — or fight the Israeli occupation.
But the threat of another Israeli war looms over the country. US President Donald Trump did not rule out renewed conflict when asked about it on Monday.
“We’ll see about that,” Trump said in a joint appearance with the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida.
“The Lebanese government is at a bit of a disadvantage, if you think about it, with Hezbollah. But Hezbollah has behaved badly, so we’ll see what happens.”
In Lebanon, efforts to disarm Hezbollah by force could lead to civil strife. Despite the Israeli strikes, Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters and retains a sizeable arsenal.
Clashes between the state and Hezbollah would be catastrophic for Lebanon. An internal conflict could also see officers and commanders within the army, who may sympathize with Hezbollah, refuse to “fight their own people”.
In conclusion, Lebanon and Hezbollah are at a critical juncture, where Israel’s emerging regional dominance casts a painful shadow over the country, and there is no easy solution to the crisis.